Sippin on Gin and Juice

An especially brilliant Friday it was, the first of May, 2006. Spared from Mother Nature's menopausal springtime whim, at least for a day. I, along with a collection of peers from the school of strong ambitions and broken morals, descended upon Churchill Downs for a date with the 132nd running of the Kentucky Oaks.

We were lucky enough to snag a box near the finish line among some of the most lustrous faces in Louisville, and pretty close to the Coors Lite stand. Nick Lachey was there, and so was his hair gel. 

Beautiful young goddesses flanked him as if he were marinated in money juice and Aqua D’Gio. And he was. I had just dropped my winning exacta ticket in my beer when I noticed a slight commotion amongst my contingency.

“I think that's...yeah, that's O.J."

"Put down the drink, O.J. would nev...holy shit. That's definitely the Juice.”

Indeed, arriving in the box right next to ours was the myth himself, O.J. Simpson. He was dressed like any murderer who successfully loop-holed the judicial system ought to be: a cream-colored linen shirt with matching linen slacks, and what I assumed were a pair of Bruno Maleighs, but who am I to suppose? He was accompanied by a group of 4-5, although the box was repeatedly visited by anxious tourists hoping to catch a glimpse of the man so famous for football. Juice was gracious, treating each visitor as if he’d known them for ages. In between entertaining the masses he would methodically study the program, perhaps hoping he was one superfecta away from settling the score with the Goldmans.

“Who do you like in this one Juice?” My friend finally blurted out.

“I hear the 2’s been unbeatable.” He confidently boasted.

I looked. The 2 sucked. I knew it, and of course, I bet it. After placing my wager I gave the Juice a nod when I arrived back at the box.

“Hope you’re right about that 2.” I said, waving my ticket.

“You and me both.” He joked, almost desperately, and further reaffirming my handicapping knowledge.

They were at the post then they were off. O.J. had a pair of binoculars and was watching intently. After all, if the real killer happened to be holing up in the Churchill Downs infield, O.J. needed to be there to exact his justice.

As expected, the 2 finished ahead of one horse.

I finally caught O.J.’s eye, and he gave me a shrug.

“She got bumped,” I said, knowingly lying but trying not to rattle his cage.

As the day pressed on we came to the ingenious decision to haggle a photo-op with the Juice. I mean, who wouldn't want to share with their grandchildren concrete proof that you can slice two throats and still get drunk and gamble at the Oaks?

We decided that we would make our move after the big race, giving us proper chance to intake the appropriate courage.

As the Oaks wrapped up and the masses began to file out, we summonsed the great beast.

“Hey O.J.,” my buddy blurted out, “do you mind getting a picture with us?”

“Sure fellas.” He quipped with surprising yearn.

My friend handed his camera to a woman in the O.J. party and I studied her for even the faintest plea for help. The Juice stepped into our box. Our cookie cutter hands became bait for his gargantuan, powerful mitts. Almost simultaneously, it hit me: I just felt a hand that had brutally ended the lives of two people, and made a mental note to scratch that one off the list.

We posed. I was pushed to the back by my over aggressive friends, but took my place beside history nonetheless.

"So you boys in college...what you studyin'?" And with a smirk, added, “Any of you fellas studyin’ law?”

One of my friends raised his hand, perhaps hopeful he was about to be hired on the spot.

“I’ve got plenty of lawyers,” the Juice shamelessly chuckled.

Unbelievable. So cocksure in his independence. Bulletproof.

The Juice then disappeared into the sunset of an otherwise gentle evening. Off to schmooze and wink with the next set of gawkers over served on infamy.

I still look back on that encounter with mixed emotions. On one hand, I interacted with the crust of all things evil. A walking narcissism, a testament to all things unjust and undemocratic, and perhaps the most notorious figure in modern day America. A double murderer, devoid of contrition, brazen in victory.

But, on the other hand, I met O.J. Simpson. Got the picture to prove it.  Pretty sweet.

Mutuel Musings: Keeneland Opening Day

What if Charlie didn’t spend his good fortune on a Wonka Bar but instead took his ducats to the track and put it across the board on longshot colt Golden Ticket in the 3rd?


Sure, the story works out well for the boy. What with getting the keys to a Fortune 1000 Candy Factory flowing with chocolate tributaries, golden eggs and shnozberries that taste like shnozberries. But when the smoke clears and all that’s left are payroll and property taxes, utility bills, the oopma union and the childhood obesity epidemic, a day at the track doesn’t seem like such a consolation.


See, just so happens Golden Ticket is sitting on a big one, just needed the extra furlong and the cushy polytrack to find his form. With 80-1 heading his .10 superfecta, Charlie is running to the cashier, and running as fast as he can. Nice payday Chuck, looks like you’ll be able to buy a pull out couch for the grandfolks.


Let’s find our Golden Ticket, shall we?


Friday 4/5


Race 1: 1-2-10


Race 2: 1-3-6


Race 3: 4-10


Race 4: 2-3-5


Race 5: 3-6-7


Race 6: 2-5-11


Race 7: 3-6-9


Race 8: 3-10-11


Race 9: 3-4-7-8

Kentucky Derby 137

The fragility of the animal that is the bread n' butter of the Bluegrass has unfortunately reared its head once again. Today's scratch of Uncle Mo, the most talented of this year's 3-year-old crop and the only one even close to the hackneyed "super-horse" designation, joins a handful of defects for what's shaped into one of the more mysterious, if not weakest, Derby fields in some time. But it's May and My Old Kentucky Home, so damn it, we're going to have us a horse race whether we're cheering on Big Brown, Barbaro, or a stunt double from Dreamer.

Archarcharch
Nice horse in fine form, but don't think he has the greatness to overcome this post. Lookin at Lucky couldn't quite pull it off and this guy is no LaL. Still, there's that 1% chance everything shapes up perfectly out of the gate, and he's able to settle into the mid-pack and make a clean late run, but hard to put your money on it.

Brilliant Speed
Liked the way this BG Stakes bomb was progressing before drawing dead here. Record shows a turf/synth specialist, but he's bred to get the distance and may be able to save ground and make a late charge if he takes to the dirt/mud at all and avoids a big pinch. Huge ifs.

Twice the Appeal
Pretty similar on paper to 2009's bomb, Mine That Bird. Obviously have to respect Borel, but will probably lead to an overbet. Has yet to show any signs of winning a GS at this distance. He'll be well back of the pace and will probably stay there.

Stay Thirsty
Well bred colt who looked good winning the Gotham, though his time was not outstanding. Ran backwards in the Fla. Derby where he never relaxed with the blinkers. Recent works point to solid form and he'd benefit from the rain, but he's yet to show the scentilating speed to put him on top.

Decisive Moment
Yet to prove much at the graded level, and lacks the class to bank on. May show some early speed but would be a complete shocker if he's still a factor down the stretch.

Comma to the Top
Will be looking to set the pace after nearly wiring in the SA Derby and Valenzuela on board. Stellar 2yo campaign on the Cali synthetic, hasn't found that form yet in three starts this year. Still think he can stay up for a piece if he's allowed the lead and not caught in suicidal fractions.

Pants on Fire
La. Derby winner isn't getting much respect and should provide some good value for the exotics, especially if the track goes sloppy. It will be interesting to see if they chase Comma to the Top early on or settle in just behind. Honestly, I don't quite know what to make of him.

Dialed In
Favorite because, well, he won his last prep and has been training like he's ready to improve, but far, far from a sure thing. His kick is consistent as is his heart, but it's 50/50 at best he even finds the room to uncork in time. Not sure he even has the speed to mow em all down, but in this race he may not need it. I like his consistency and form, connections can't be beat and the son of Mineshaft should take to the added distance.

Derby Kitten
Improving colt showed a nice kick in the Lexington to get this post, just couple races removed from the claiming ranks, which if you follow the Ramsey Barn, is not quite as alarming as you'd think. What is alarming is his lone performance on dirt. Maybe he'll take to it this time around, but not sure he can hang in mid pack here or has the speed to close from the clouds.

Twinspired
Another synthetic specialist who figures to be well off the pace and has the right jockey and a name right out of the book of Jim Nantz. Will this be a win for the ages? As good as it gets? Can he outrun his odds towards a rock-chalk championship? Don't count on it.

Master of Hounds
Love his pedigree and the game effort for place in Dubai. But colour me skepical that he'll be ready to roll 1-1/4 just days removed from quarintine after shipping from Europe. On class alone, he's a solid play for the exotics, but would've loved to have seen a strong work prior to this.

Santiva
Like his GSW on this track last year, but while I can toss out a dud on synthetic with traffic problems, it's hard to forgive his BG Stakes performance. You'd hope he had the chops to run himself out of that weak field. I think they'll try and get him closer to the pace here, which would help his chances and his pedigree is heavy on stamina. Without a strong showing here he'll probably be back in a NWx1 allowance. Doesn't exactly scream Derby winner but neither did Mine That Bird.

Mucho Macho Man
Gamer was a disappointment in the La. Derby, but it wasn't a flop and he's been working very well since. I'd like to see him sent from the start and see if the other speedsters can match his pace and stamina. Lot of room for improvement and think he could end up being the best of this bunch down the road, maybe it starts right here.

Shackleford
Ran his eyeballs out in the Fla. Derby, nearly wiring the field at 60-1. Has outrun his odds in nearly every race and his recent works show he's still in top form. Not sure he'll be able to get the lead here, and while he's shown some ability to rate, he'll have to step up to another level to go the distance. Don't think he has that level.

Midnight Interlude
First, the obvious: un-raced as a juvy, which hasn't led to Derby success since the Chester A. Arthur administration. But he's improved every time out this year, capped off by a strong final panel to take the SA Derby. Has the early speed to save ground and follow Shackleford to the front, and the ability to rate. Trainer's record here is a huge plus and his form is impeccable right now. Looks primed for a big run but there are two major hurdles: can he hold off the late chargers at this distance and how will this green runner handle adversity?

Animal Kingdom
Spiral winner has made his run in every race so far, but none of which were over the dirt. Distance shouldn't be a factor and he settles in off the pace. Like the way he's been training and like his versatility, which is a must coming from this post. Assuming he handles the track, his late kick could put him on the board at a nice price.

Soldat
Poised for greatness before the Fla. Derby flop. Had he even just hit the board in that one, you'd probably be looking at the co-favorite. His workouts since have been ok, and if he's feeling fresh at post time he'll make some noise. Must get out clean and save ground and you'll know if he's near the lead that he's ready to run. I like him to rebound and find the board.

Nehro
Backside buzz horse whose furious finishes in the Ark. and Tampa Derbys, along with his pedigree, makes you think he'll appreciate the added distance. If he can slink to the back early and save ground, he'll be coming hard late assuming he gets the space and you have to like how he's improved race to race. Will likely be an underlay but is dangerous.

Watch Me Go
Yes, Big Brown pulled it off from out here, but this fella had trouble finishing the Illinois Derby for crying out loud. Did look solid winning the TB Derby at huge odds, but it had fluke written all over it. I guess if you don't play you can't win, but not sure he'd win an allowance tomorrow.

So, my initial superfecta-box looks something like this...
Midnight Interlude
Animal Kingdom
Nehro
Mucho Macho Man
But really, just throw a dart or pick your favorite name. This one's gonna be interesting, and probably pretty slow.

Kentucky Derby 135: handicapped space

What other sporting event could comprise the likes of a 75 year old retired principal, the ruler of Dubai, Jenny Craig, and a high rollin' Wall Street hedge fund? These are but a handful of the owners with a stake in this year's Kentucky Derby, which the compulsively cerebral Broseph and I have dissected below. Once again, it looks like a strong chance the track will be soupy, closely resembling the overflow from infield porta-pottys. Remember, in these economic times of woe, you might as well bet all you have left. Trust us...

(1) West Side Bernie (Elliot/Breen; 30-1) Death Row Stables colt had Solid 2yo campaign, has been spotty in his 3 starts this year. Nice 2nd in The Wood, though I Want Revenge cooked him in the stretch after fighting through a hellacious trip. Wouldn’t be shocked if he got up for a taste if the pace is hot, and worth a shout out or two in the exotics at these odds. -Intern

(2) Musket Man (Coa / Ryan; 20-1) The big reason to like this horse is that he is the winner of the very underrated Illinois Derby (which produced the last wire-to-wire winner of the Derby, War Emblem). Last year, Recapturetheglory gave the Illinois prep some cred by running fifth at huge odds. The one thing that scares me about this horse is the pilot. Never been a real big fan of Eibar Coa, and the rail spot means he’ll need to hustle it up early or wait back and circle the huge field to get any sort of trip. -Broseph

(3) Mr. Hot Stuff (Velasquez / Harty; 30-1) Maybe I missed something here, but Johnny V has been riding for Pletcher since Shep was a pup, and now he jumps on with Eoin (pronounced Owen…don’t ask me) Harty. This could be nothing, or it could signify Velasquez’s interest in a live runner. Still, don’t think he has much chance with only one victory, that being against maidens, in his lifetime. With a name like his, I have no idea why his silks aren’t hot pink. -B

(4) Advice (Douglas/Pletcher; 30-1) Came from the clouds to nab the Lexington S, but has done little else against much weaker foes than he'll face here. Chanceless. -I

(5) Hold Me Back (Desormeaux/ Mott; 15-1) Stellar on the polytrack, evidenced by his roll in the Lanes End and commendable 2nd in the Blue Grass. Alas, a complete question mark on the dirt, let alone slop, but the aptly named colt is another stretch runner with plenty of wind and a Derby vet on board. He'll have to prove he can handle the track before getting a second look. -I

(6) Friesan Fire (Saez / Jones; 5-1) The pick. You only had to watch his victory in the Louisiana Derby to see the talent in this guy. Never needed to be asked for too much, handled the wet surface beautifully, and pulled away running straight as an arrow to win by more than 7 lengths. The knock against him is the ‘foundation’ he lacks by not running a mile-and-an-eighth, but I trust Larry Jones and remember that everyone said Barbaro was too lightly raced before his Derby victory. Not to mention that he was seven lengths better than Papa Clem last time out. -B

(7) Papa Clem (Bejerano / Stute; 20-1) Probably one of the better 20-1 shots in the Derby in a long time, Papa Clem comes off of a big win against then-favorite Old Fashioned in the Arkansas Derby. Naysayers will cry foul, saying that Old Fashioned was already injured at that point, but it’s still hard to knock a guy who has finished second to both PioneeroftheNile and Friesan Fire. Evan’s betting favorite because Beje is aboard. -B

(8) Mine That Bird (Borel, Woolley; 50-1) The white guy in this marathon, does not show he belongs from any angle. Last. -I

(9) Join in the Dance (Decarlo / Pletcher; 50-1) Not gonna lie, never heard of this jockey, but the trainer has been around a while. One of the better stories in this Derby is that this guy’s part-owner is Orlando’s Rashad Lewis (who has scored over 13,000 points…is that right?). He has also only won against maidens once, but he ran a tight second to Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby, so if you like MM, you probably think this guy can’t be too far behind, but pretty sure this guy will find the dance floor too crowded. -B

(10) Regal Ransom (Garcia, bin Suroor; 30-1) This is where it gets interesting. One of a pair from Dubai's Goldophin Stable, scored a nice upset win over neighbor Desert Party in the UAE Derby. Figures to right in behind the #9 at the top of the pace, but could just as easily get cooked in the opening half. I like him on an off track with breathable fractions, but it's hard to side with the Dubai contingency until they prove they belong in the Triple Crown. -I

(11) Chocolate Candy (Smith / Hollendorfer; 20-1) If you’re looking for a longshot with an angle, this is your horse. He has yet to run on the conventional dirt, but many say that his lineage is built for the surface, so he could take a huge step forward. He has lost only twice in six starts (both to PioneeroftheNile), so even though he may not catch him, he can hang with the rest. The drawback to his parentage is that a mile-and-a-quarter may not be to his liking, which is unfortunate, because that’s how long this race is. -B

(12) General Quarters (Leparoux / McCarthy; 20-1) He’s got a great post position, and there’s no better jockey for this oval, but I am staying away from this guy. Put me in the camp that thinks his best is back in Lexington. Plus, the Bluegrass winner in 2008, Monba, beat zero horses in the Derby last year, so I wouldn’t call that a ringing endorsement. Yeah, yeah…the trainer is a confused, old high school teacher with only one horse, but save that crap for Hollywood. I’ll wait for it to come out on DVD. -B

(13) I Want Revenge (Talamo/ Mullins; 3-1) Has everything you'd expect from an eventual Derby champ: successive wins and 100+ Beyers since moving from Poly to the dirt, and versatile speed. Couldn't catch Pioneer of the Nile out west, but the potential for even more improvement is there. Literally gave the field a 3 second head start in the Wood, and romped anyway. Talamo is an emerging star, but just dipping his short, stubby toes into the shallow end in his first Derby mount. Expect him to rate just off the pace, and we'll see what he's made of in the final quarter. Clean trip, or no clean trip, should be a major factor. -I

(14) Atomic Rain (Bravo/ Breen; 50-1) One career win came in a maiden at 5f...improving colt has looked sharp over the CD track, but he's running against a lot more than the stopwatch here. I'd save my longshot ticket for others. -I

(15) Dunkirk (Prado/ Pletcher; 4-1) Without a doubt, the most intriguing colt in the field. Some are hailing this $3.7 million dollar purchase as the next Superhorse, but with only 3 career starts, remains a complete enigma. Unraced at 2, which has not been a successful Derby path since 1882, you have to think his best is still well in front of him. Ran a huge 2nd in the Fla Derby, considering it was his first go-round at the graded level, only his 3rd lifetime start, and he yielded to who many believe is the top 3yo, Quality Road. His works scream that he's as live as anyone else, and his regal bloodline and flashy connections cannot be ignored. Should be in the crowded middle of the pack real estate, and will have his chance to show us if he's ready for this stage. If you are willing to overlook history, and take a chance on potential, here he is. -I

(16) PioneeroftheNile (Gomez / Baffert; 4-1) There was no more successful jockey last year than G-squared, and if you watched the ‘Jockeys’ episode with him making a cameo, all I can say is prima donna, which makes him fit right in with the trainer. Still, as much as it pains me to say it, this could be the best of the bunch. He doesn’t win by much, but he has yet to lose, and that includes a battle against morning-line favorite, I Want Revenge. The one knock is the surface switch, since it seems as if the entire state of California is covered in some form of Polytrack. But, to speak to my audience here, if horses were ranked in the RPI, this one’s SOS would be #1. -B

(17) Summer Bird (Rosier/ Ice; 50-1) Makes 4th career start after cleaning up a spent field for 2nd in the Ark Derby. Like Dunkirk, he was unraced at 2 and shows promise, but unlike Dunkirk, he's simply not classy enough for this bunch. Seriously, huge ass. -I

(18) Nowhere to Hide (Bridgmohan / Zito; 50-1) This horse is aptly named, but don’t ever let Tricky Nick fool you. Zito has saddled the last two Belmont heartbreakers (Birdstone, Da Tara), and he always runs out of the odds the betting public puts on him in the big races. Still, there is absolutely zero to like when looking at his past performances: it took him five starts to break his maiden at Calder, that was his only win, he finished fourth in all three of his graded starts this year, and he has exactly 99 dollars more than the minimum $100,000 one would normally need to make the field. Still, Nick Zito is like that guy in the rated-R movie that you’re just not sure about… -B

(19) Desert Party (Dominguez / Suroor; 15-1) Both Dubai horses (Regal Ransom being the other) are all the rage on the backside because of their huge physical presence, and to the paddock watchers, they will be tough to lay off of. I tend to side with this one rather than Ransom, and DP was purchased for over 2 million bucks as a two-year-old. Since he likes to come off the pace, his seemingly poor post position may not be as bad as one would like to believe. Still, he has yet to run on U.S. soil and the Derby isn’t a time to be learning on the job. -B

(20) Flying Private (Albarado/ Lukas; 50-1) Gets the benefit of Lucas and Robby, but that's where it ends. Might be the most capable of the 50-1's, but has shown little to suggest he can outkick the faves. -I

Broseph’s Picks

1.Friesan Fire: looked very professional in his last win; will be fresh

2.I Want Revenge: his Wood victory is the stuff of legends; check Youtube

3.Desert Party: expensive colt who's ready to fire

4.PioneeroftheNile: he’s won ‘em all, just not convincingly

5.Chocolate Candy: these two should run together

Intern

1. Friesan Fire

2. Papa Clem

3. Pioneer of the Nile

4. Desert Party

5. I Want Revenge

Breeder's Cup: runneth over

In a world brimming with cups---Ryder, Stanley, Sprint, DD's---the Breeder's Cup stands alone as sports' richest event. This year, the Cup gets a taste of Title IX and, for the very first time, a synthetic track. Tomorrow, we find out if Curlin does indeed belong in the short list of all time greats, and in case you were wondering what Title IX tastes like, kitty litter. And now, for your betting pleasure:

Friday

Sentient Flight Group Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

Broseph: Zaftig (6) hasn’t run since June 7, but she did toy with Indian Blessing the entire trip before drawing off by 4.5 lengths in the GI Acorn. Add Bejerano and give her the slight edge. Indian Blessing (5) is one-for-one on a synthetic surface, winning at Santa Anita in January, and Baffert will be a popular play out West. She looks to be overbet but should be in the exacta. Indyanne (2) has never left GIII company, but her two-for-two score on synthetic surfaces gives her an advantage over the rest, and her $375,000 price tag shows that her best days are ahead of her.

Picks: 6-5-2

Intern: 12-3-5

Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Intern: 11-Saucey Evening has had some rough trips in her 4 career starts, so look for Gomez to steer her straight into the winner's circle this time around. 7-Consequence makes her 3rd career start and looks poised to hoof it on up to the next level. At least that's what she told me. 2-Laragh looked like a superstar earlier this month at Keeneland and if there is anything left in tank, she'll be the one to catch.

Broseph:11-5-8

Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Broseph: Two-year-old races are built on potential, price tags, and connections, and Be Smart (1) has all three. Priced at $325,000 with Lukas and Gomez in charge, this horse is making her third career start, but she did a lot of damage in the GI Alcibiades last time out and gave Dream Empress all she could handle on the synthetic track at Keeneland. Stardom Bound (10) boasts the best resume, already winning two GI’s and never missing the board in four starts. Add in the fact that synthetic tracks are all she’s ever known, and no surprise why she’s the chalk. Sky Diva (4) has won by a combined 14 lengths in her first two starts and should build off of that.

Picks: 1-10-4

Intern: 11-4-2

Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Intern: 3-Forever Together already has 2 GI's wins in the bag this year, and done so in dominant fashion. 5-Wait a While is the epitome of consistent and has been on point so far this year. She loves the distance and a perfect 2 for 2 on this course. In 8 starts this year 7-Mauralakana has yet to finish worse than 2nd. Hard to keep this champ off the board.

Broseph: 5-7-8

Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic

Broseph: It’s hard to pick against Zenyatta (1) who is an insane 7 for 7 on synthetic surfaces and 8 for 8 lifetime. There aren’t many singles on this card, but this could be one of them in a short field. Kinda seems like she scared everyone else off. If anybody can catch her, Ginger Punch (6) has the best shot. She won this race last year in the slop, so she has the experience edge. Add the Frankel/Bejerano edge, and she’s got a glimmer of hope. Carriage Trail (5) has a solid synthetic record, took the Keeneland Spinster her last out by seven, and is coming off two straight 103+ speed ratings.

Picks: 1-6-5

Intern: 6-1-5

Saturday

Breeders’ Cup Marathon

Intern: 4-Sixties Icon is custom built for the 1 1/2, many American horses are not. He's coming in on a roll, winning his last 3 in Europe, all GIII's. 3-Delightful Kiss comes in very live and a winner of his last two. He's won on the synthetic and gets the ultra-patient and dapper Calvin Borel in the saddle. 8-Cedar Mountain comes back from a 3 mo. layoff but has not missed the board in 4 starts this year.

Broseph: 6-4-7

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Broseph: Pretty weak field, considering only one is coming off of a GI start, so this one should be a blanket at the wire. Give the edge to Fleeting Spirit (2) who only lost the GI Longchamp by 3 lengths and has hit the board 7 of 8 lifetime starts on turf. Diabolical (8) took a trip to Europe and ran a grueling schedule that should have him ready to make a big return to the States. Although a long shot, Rouse the Cat (7) gets Edgar Prado and showed some life in his last out, getting nosed at the wire by other runner True to Tradition.

Picks: 2-8-7

Intern: 11-2-13

TVG Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Intern: 8-Well Armed has been on fire this year and has faced the best of the best. I think the mile will suit him splendidly, especially if he's allowed the early lead. 1-Lewis Michael has only raced twice since finishing a distant 5th in this race last year over the slop at Monmouth. He's shown improvement in his 2 races this year and is a synthetic track phenom.

Broseph: 1-8-7

Breeders’ Cup Mile

Broseph: The Shadwell trio all made it, but they may be in over their heads here. Goldikova (4) won the aforementioned Longchamp last out, and if he can reproduce that effort, he’ll be tough to beat. Kip Deville (2) won this race last year and followed it up with a Makers Mark Mile victory, but he’s fallen off a bit since then. If he can round back to form, he’ll be tough. Precious Kitten (3) was a beaten favorite last out, and she has a chance to sneak up on the rest this time.

Picks: 4-2-3

Intern: 11-4-3

Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Intern: 12-Bushranger handled the best 2yo's in Europe and is by far the most successful horse in the field to date. Not sure how he's going to handle the travel and the track, but at 6-1 ML it's tough to turn down. 4-Square Eddie made is US debut earlier this month by romping in the Futurity at Keeneland. The scary thing is he might actually be primed to improve, and if that is the case then I'm not sure anyone in this bunch can catch him. 11-Midshipman won the DelMar Furturity back in Sept and seemed to lose a little focus in his first try at this distance in the Norfolk. Baffert is merely picking his spots these days so I expect a good effort here.

Broseph: 1-11-12

Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Broseph: Again, two-year-olds are a tough bunch, but the pricy Coronet of a Baron (7) was sold for over a half-million bucks, and he performed admirably, losing by a nose in the Del Mar Futurity. Although he has no turf starts, synthetic surface is usually a pretty good indication of how they’ll fair. Grand Adventure (12) is taking a step up, but he’s 2 for 2 on the grass, so he rates a chance. Pletcher and Velazquez team up to give Bittel Road (11) a good shot in his 4th lifetime start.

Picks: 7-12-11

Intern: 10-11-3

Sentient Flight Group Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Intern: 4-Midnight Lute is back to defend the crown in only his 3rd start since. He was soundly beaten back in August after an 8 mo. rehab, but his recent works over the the cushion say he's ready to uncork another gem. A hot pace in the dash for the cash would set up beautifully for the closing 2-Street Boss, who already has two GI wins this year. 7-In Summation has been spotty this year but has a ton of experience at this level and has the speed to get loose.

Broseph: 2-1-3

Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf

Broseph: A couple of former winners in this field, but Grand Couturier (3) is coming off an insane 10-length score in the GI Turf Classic at Belmont, and anything close to that form will be tough to beat. If the turf is moist, give him an even bigger edge. Red Rocks (2) will have to settle for second this year but looks like a live one after being the only horse this year to boast a win over monster-stud Curlin. Soldier of Fortune (4) was game enough to get third place in the Arc de Triomphe, the most prestigious turf race in the world.

Picks: 3-2-4

Intern: 9-3-5

Breeders’ Cup Classic

Broseph: Rick Dutrow’s terrible karma finally caught up with him and ruined a wonderful showdown, but this is Curlin’s (9) meeting with destiny. The last GII this horse ran in was the Arkansas Derby in 2007. Since then, he has won 8 of 12 GI showdowns, including the Stephen Foster, in which he carried ten more pounds than any other horse. Synthetic Scare ‘08 will only make more money for us, and my advice is to sit back and enjoy this one. Student Council (7) battled and ran gamely with superhorse Commentator two back, and he looks to put some value in the exacta. Go Between (1) likes the synthetic surface and has earned over 2.7 million lifetime.

Picks:9-7-1

Intern: 9-5-11

And we now return you to your regularly scheduled hysteria.

Kentucky Derby: 1-3-to-the-4

Clyde van Dusen…that’s the only horse ever to win the Derby out of the 20 post, and he did it in 1929, and he sounds like he was named after a huge dork. But, undaunted, odds on favorite Big Brown and his trainer Rick Dutrow passed on the 1, 2, 18, and 19 and went for number 20. Now, I can relate with being disoriented at Fourth Street Live (although I’m not proud of it with all the jorts and ankle tats and all), but you would think Dutrow would wear his sober hat until after the draw. Still, makes you wonder if he knows something we all don’t. Guess we’ll wait and see. Twenty horses short on experience but long in stride + 200,000 drunks + Kid Rock= your guess is as good as ours.

Post Position Tidbits: Since 1900, 82% of Derby winners have come from posts 1-10…of all the posts, the 5 and the 1 have gleaned the most winners (12) although the last horse to win from the 1 was Ferdinand (1986)…even though the 20 has only one winner, only 15 horses have ever broken from the 20, so the percentage is a bit misleading.

Derby Prep Tidbits: In the past 20 years, Derby winners have come from Santa Anita (6), Bluegrass (5), Wood (4), Arkansas (3), Illinois (1), and Florida Derby (1)…75% of the Derby winners have been in the exacta in their final prep…only eight horses have won their final prep before the Derby (last one being Barbaro in 2006). --Broseph

(1) Cool Coal Man: another curious victim of the Bluegrass Stakes, which saw this rapidly improving Fountain of Youth winner finish a distant 9th. I would be willing to throw that first foray on the Poly out, except for this ominous post position. Nineteen horses haphazardly breaking from the gate to his right means this pace stalker had better find a spot quick. The connections are there: Zito-Leparoux-Farish, as is the stock: Mineshaft, but there’s nothing that tells me this colt will be the first since ’86 to win from the rail. --Intern

(2) Tale of Ekati: Was able to catch lightning-fast War Pass in the last strides, but War Pass ran stupid fractions, and not sure if they’re going to go out quite that quick on Derby Day. Also, I mentioned shortly after the Wood Memorial that the Ragozin Rating on the race was poor. Whether or not you put any weight into somewhat arbitrary numerical rankings (and by the way in which we Cat fans watched the RPI, you do), the Wood was one of the weakest prep races of the year. Probably ran his best race in New York. --Broseph

(3) Anak Nakal: This will be Evan’s pick because he has a complete man crush on Bejerano, but this horse has little chance. All Zito has been saying all week is, “We need to hope for another Giacomo.” You can say that he’s got something under his sleeve, but it seems to me that he is being sincere. Very little to like at this point. --Broseph

(4) Court Vision: This horse hasn’t won in his last two (with the Fountain of Youth being a bit of a disappointment), but he knows how to hit the board. In his last two preps, he has come rolling in from off the pace to finish a game third. The trip he gets Saturday is worrisome, but I refuse to keep him out of exotics because he will have enough late kick to hit the board again. Even though War Pass is out, there will still be pace (Bob Black Jack, Recapturetheglory) to run at. --Broseph

(5) Eight Belles: When it comes to horses, losing to a girl doesn’t exactly carry the connotation it does for us humans. After all, we’re dealing with horses (and females) here and they lack rationale. But there is also a reason why they run the Oaks and successful exceptions to the rule have been very few and far between. This is a terrific filly who would dominate her “girls” in the Oaks. Although her daddy Unbridled won this race back in ’90, this is not Winning Colors, nor Rags to Riches for that matter. She certainly isn’t doomed, but it would require more than she’s shown thus far. --Intern

(6) Z Fortune: The “other” Asmussen entry ran the best race of his young life last month in the Arkansas Derby…unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to get by Gayego that day, though, considering he broke from the 11th hole and was 4-5 wide the whole way, it may have been just as impressive of a trip. He crawls in his works but he’s a striking colt with some versatility and Albarado gets the mount. Might be ready to uncork his best stuff. --Intern

(7) Big Truck: Bitten by the Bluegrass bug (11th), the Tampa Derby champ would appear primed for a solid rebound effort. At least, that’s what his sizzling workouts suggest. He may not have a Hemi, but he does have Barclay Tagg. Huge stamina questions though as he failed to fire in his two starts at 1 1/8th. Not sure he can rate with this group. --Intern

(8) Visionaire: Don’t put much stock into jockeys, but Lezcano is pretty green. Plus, I never listen to good news prior to the Derby as far as workouts and morning gallops (excepting Colonel John’s monster 5-furlong workout in 57.80), but I always listen to the bad news….and there is some bad news surrounding Visionaire’s pedigree and his last workout. Apparently, he didn’t gallop out like many would have wanted him, and his chances are slim at best. --Broseph

(9) Pyro: not winning the Bluegrass is fine. With a talent like this a trainer really just wants to keep them healthy and fine tuned, but also fresh. It’s why Borel didn’t push the ‘all-out’ button in last year’s Bluegrass, for example. But you certainly hope to do better than 10th. True, some horses just don’t take to the Poly, but it’s pretty rare that a horse flat refuses to run on it. With a less-than-stellar 4f breeze at Churchill last week, you have to wonder if he left it all in Louisiana, he’s hurt, or the connections are simply playing some ball. The Bluegrass was his first career dud, and he’s far too fast and powerful to not be there in the end…unless of course, he’s not fit. But at 6/1 I’ll bet that he is. --Intern

(10) Colonel John: His results speak for themselves: 1st or 2nd in all six lifetime starts, as does his speed: 57 and change over the Churchill dirt last week. He is game, versatile, and very live. He also ships from California, where the beer flows like wine, where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano, and where there is nary a dirt track to be found. Though all 6 starts have been over the cushion, that 5f bullet on Churchill’s dirt suggests the surface will not be an issue. With an impressive win from the clouds in the Santa Anita, the sexy workout, favorable post position, and the infinite amount of John’s at betting booths out there looking for any sign at all (guilty), don’t be surprised if he’s at least a co-favorite come Saturday. Hard to argue. --Intern

(11) Z Humor: Trainer Billy Mott is simply one of the best in the biz, and while his dominance has recently been felt on the turf, he wouldn’t be in here if he didn’t think he could win it (this might sound obligatory, but it most certainly is not). Impeccably bred for this track but he’s yet to win in ’08, so you have to wonder if he has the thirst for the finish line necessary to navigate through 19 other foes. It will be interesting to see where they try to rate him, as he lacks the speed to sit atop the pace, and has had little success from off the pace. --Intern

(12) Smooth Air: had a helluva trip in the Florida Derby, but no one was sniffing Big Brown’s big brown that day. Still rounded that 1 1/8th in a solid 1:48, which is as good as any other horse in the field. Although he’s been on the sprint circuit most of his career, he’s handled the gradually added distance nicely and conditioner Bernie Stutts is a no-nonsense pillar on the Florida circuit. Intrigued. --Intern

(13) Bob Black Jack: Should be your leader at the half-mile pole. Again, if you think this year’s field is a slow one, it wouldn’t kill you to put him in your exotics, but I highly doubt he wires this field. Still, he’s added blinkers, and they may just tell Migliore to let him try and steal it. --Broseph

(14) Monba: Strong closer in the Bluegrass after a dismal Fountain of Youth. Pletcher is going to win the Derby one of these days, and this is his best shot this year. If you include the Cash Call Futurity, he seems to perform much better in Grade I’s than Grade II’s, so maybe he needs the competition around him to get the best from him. Also, doesn’t have a long way to ship from Lexington. --Broseph

(15) Adriano: if the son of A.P. Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare weren’t enough to command respect, Edgar Prado shuns Tale of Ekati for the keys to this regal Lanes End champ. Like Hard Spun a year ago, the connections decided to keep their colt on the shelf after conquering the Turfway Polytrack in March. Certainly a long layoff, but by no means a disqualifier. The only real concern I see is the obvious: 1 career race on dirt, 9th place (Fountain of Youth). His trainer thinks he’s the one to beat, and although the biased boastfulness should often be ignored, he appears to be primed for his best effort to date…if he handles the track…and 19 rivals. --Intern

(16) Denis of Cork: with only 4 lifetime starts notched into his saddle, this Florida bred (booo) is the obligatory mystery horse capable of sewing his way to stardom, or just as likely to be panic stricken by the buzz of 200k people and dense traffic. His first career start, and the only as a 2 year old, came over the Churchill track, and his workouts there have been impressive. Fortunate his hugely disappointing 5th in the Illinois Derby didn’t relegate him to the undercard, as his first try at 1 1/8th fell flat. But I like this colt as he reminds me a bit of Afleet Alex. But the Churchill track on the first Saturday in May is not the ideal time and place to make your 5th career start. --Intern

(17) Cowboy Cal: Plenty of readers here had him tagged as the winner of the Bluegrass, and he nearly delivered. Still, his best races seem to be run on turf, and the softer Polytrack lends much of an edge to grass runners. Much like Tale of Ekati, he left his best in his last race. Also, he will not be able to get out front in slow fractions and try to steal the race Saturday, like he almost did in Lexington. --Broseph

(18) Recapturetheglory: I have seen this horse picked anywhere from fifth to not on the board, but I can’t help but put him in the exotics because he could be on the front near the end. Much like Hard Spun and Lion Heart, he could round out a nice exacta if you have the faith. War Emblem was able to do it, and all I’ve been hearing this year is how “slow” the field is…so, why the hell not? --Broseph

(19) Gayego: unlike some, I was impressed by his victory in the Arkansas Derby. He may not have buried a stacked field, but he was pressed the whole way and held off a game Z Fortune in the stretch. I like his power and consistency, but this is a gnarly post position, especially for speed. Jockey Mike Smith will do what he can to get this colt comfortably near the front, but for a lightly raced 3 year old, you can’t expect much from the extreme outside. --Intern

(20) Big Brown: This horse's Florida Derby was awesome for many reasons: overcoming his post (12), setting fast fractions, and winning by daylight. Barbaro destroyed the myth that a lightly-raced horse can't win the Derby, and Big Brown took to the track well yesterday morning. Jill Byrne said his gallop was impressive because of the ground he can cover with each stride. Also, a wet track only helps this guy if he can stay on or near the lead. Shaky favorite, and you have to wonder about the post decision. --Broseph

Broseph’s Picks

1. Big Brown: move over Clyde van Dusen

2. Monba: like Andre Woodson, left Lex Vegas a winner

3. Court Vision: he likes third place…that’s cool with me

4. Recapturetheglory: can’t shake the War Emblem vibe

5. Pyro: maybe he just didn’t like the Polytrack

Intern's Picks

1. Colonel John: the outside speed could set up nicely for him

2. Adriano: in Edgar Prado I trust

3. Pyro: if he's right, he's capable going away

4. Big Brown: silly power and speed, silly post position

5. Smooth Air: saving his best?

Wrong day, right horse?

As this YouTube treasure attests, the mysterious Curlin is not the only animal reeling in the reality of that whole "losing to a girl" thing. Sure, his stablemates gave him hell for a while, but they know...they know they couldn't run the Rags down, either. Well, if Curlin thinks like Paul Simon, and I'd say that's a safe bet, he's eager for his "photo opportunity" and a "shot at redemption."

While The Haskell is but one out of a hefty bundle of lucrative Stakes races this time of year, there's a certain mystique implanted in its story, and is truly one of the top two or three races every summer. Glancing over the names of the past winners is like taking a roll call in Cooperstown: Forty Niner, Holy Bull, Skip Away, Point Given, just to name a few of the legends to conquer these 10 furlongs.

There's really no reason to think Curlin can't add his African-American name to that list today. His freak-like, allbeit small resume pre-Triple Crown crafted as many skeptics as believers, but his grit and domineering leg put everyone on board in the Preakness, and his near miss to a fresh lass at Belmont only solidified his talent. I'm not liberal with my "superhorse" tags, but Curlin certainly has the ingredients to take it to the next level. That being said, I'm looking to beat him today, and I'm going with my crush, AnyGivenSaturday. Maybe it's the first-time-at-the-races-pick-the-coolest-name in me, but I really think his ability is on par with Curlin and Street Sense. The Distored Humor colt is not only a physical monster, he's proven. This isn't some lightly challenge, mystery West Coaster here, AGS has raced against the best each time out, and that four-length stroll over NobizLikeShobiz in the Dwyer tells me this horse is live and ready. I'll be rooting for the hard-lucked Hard Spun (and I feel he'll be around 4-1 after Curlin and AGS), and the very fast and very green Cable Boy, but only to complete my trifecta.