Sippin on Gin and Juice

An especially brilliant Friday it was, the first of May, 2006. Spared from Mother Nature's menopausal springtime whim, at least for a day. I, along with a collection of peers from the school of strong ambitions and broken morals, descended upon Churchill Downs for a date with the 132nd running of the Kentucky Oaks.

We were lucky enough to snag a box near the finish line among some of the most lustrous faces in Louisville, and pretty close to the Coors Lite stand. Nick Lachey was there, and so was his hair gel. 

Beautiful young goddesses flanked him as if he were marinated in money juice and Aqua D’Gio. And he was. I had just dropped my winning exacta ticket in my beer when I noticed a slight commotion amongst my contingency.

“I think that's...yeah, that's O.J."

"Put down the drink, O.J. would nev...holy shit. That's definitely the Juice.”

Indeed, arriving in the box right next to ours was the myth himself, O.J. Simpson. He was dressed like any murderer who successfully loop-holed the judicial system ought to be: a cream-colored linen shirt with matching linen slacks, and what I assumed were a pair of Bruno Maleighs, but who am I to suppose? He was accompanied by a group of 4-5, although the box was repeatedly visited by anxious tourists hoping to catch a glimpse of the man so famous for football. Juice was gracious, treating each visitor as if he’d known them for ages. In between entertaining the masses he would methodically study the program, perhaps hoping he was one superfecta away from settling the score with the Goldmans.

“Who do you like in this one Juice?” My friend finally blurted out.

“I hear the 2’s been unbeatable.” He confidently boasted.

I looked. The 2 sucked. I knew it, and of course, I bet it. After placing my wager I gave the Juice a nod when I arrived back at the box.

“Hope you’re right about that 2.” I said, waving my ticket.

“You and me both.” He joked, almost desperately, and further reaffirming my handicapping knowledge.

They were at the post then they were off. O.J. had a pair of binoculars and was watching intently. After all, if the real killer happened to be holing up in the Churchill Downs infield, O.J. needed to be there to exact his justice.

As expected, the 2 finished ahead of one horse.

I finally caught O.J.’s eye, and he gave me a shrug.

“She got bumped,” I said, knowingly lying but trying not to rattle his cage.

As the day pressed on we came to the ingenious decision to haggle a photo-op with the Juice. I mean, who wouldn't want to share with their grandchildren concrete proof that you can slice two throats and still get drunk and gamble at the Oaks?

We decided that we would make our move after the big race, giving us proper chance to intake the appropriate courage.

As the Oaks wrapped up and the masses began to file out, we summonsed the great beast.

“Hey O.J.,” my buddy blurted out, “do you mind getting a picture with us?”

“Sure fellas.” He quipped with surprising yearn.

My friend handed his camera to a woman in the O.J. party and I studied her for even the faintest plea for help. The Juice stepped into our box. Our cookie cutter hands became bait for his gargantuan, powerful mitts. Almost simultaneously, it hit me: I just felt a hand that had brutally ended the lives of two people, and made a mental note to scratch that one off the list.

We posed. I was pushed to the back by my over aggressive friends, but took my place beside history nonetheless.

"So you boys in college...what you studyin'?" And with a smirk, added, “Any of you fellas studyin’ law?”

One of my friends raised his hand, perhaps hopeful he was about to be hired on the spot.

“I’ve got plenty of lawyers,” the Juice shamelessly chuckled.

Unbelievable. So cocksure in his independence. Bulletproof.

The Juice then disappeared into the sunset of an otherwise gentle evening. Off to schmooze and wink with the next set of gawkers over served on infamy.

I still look back on that encounter with mixed emotions. On one hand, I interacted with the crust of all things evil. A walking narcissism, a testament to all things unjust and undemocratic, and perhaps the most notorious figure in modern day America. A double murderer, devoid of contrition, brazen in victory.

But, on the other hand, I met O.J. Simpson. Got the picture to prove it.  Pretty sweet.

Mutuel Musings: Keeneland Opening Day

What if Charlie didn’t spend his good fortune on a Wonka Bar but instead took his ducats to the track and put it across the board on longshot colt Golden Ticket in the 3rd?


Sure, the story works out well for the boy. What with getting the keys to a Fortune 1000 Candy Factory flowing with chocolate tributaries, golden eggs and shnozberries that taste like shnozberries. But when the smoke clears and all that’s left are payroll and property taxes, utility bills, the oopma union and the childhood obesity epidemic, a day at the track doesn’t seem like such a consolation.


See, just so happens Golden Ticket is sitting on a big one, just needed the extra furlong and the cushy polytrack to find his form. With 80-1 heading his .10 superfecta, Charlie is running to the cashier, and running as fast as he can. Nice payday Chuck, looks like you’ll be able to buy a pull out couch for the grandfolks.


Let’s find our Golden Ticket, shall we?


Friday 4/5


Race 1: 1-2-10


Race 2: 1-3-6


Race 3: 4-10


Race 4: 2-3-5


Race 5: 3-6-7


Race 6: 2-5-11


Race 7: 3-6-9


Race 8: 3-10-11


Race 9: 3-4-7-8

Kentucky Derby 137

The fragility of the animal that is the bread n' butter of the Bluegrass has unfortunately reared its head once again. Today's scratch of Uncle Mo, the most talented of this year's 3-year-old crop and the only one even close to the hackneyed "super-horse" designation, joins a handful of defects for what's shaped into one of the more mysterious, if not weakest, Derby fields in some time. But it's May and My Old Kentucky Home, so damn it, we're going to have us a horse race whether we're cheering on Big Brown, Barbaro, or a stunt double from Dreamer.

Archarcharch
Nice horse in fine form, but don't think he has the greatness to overcome this post. Lookin at Lucky couldn't quite pull it off and this guy is no LaL. Still, there's that 1% chance everything shapes up perfectly out of the gate, and he's able to settle into the mid-pack and make a clean late run, but hard to put your money on it.

Brilliant Speed
Liked the way this BG Stakes bomb was progressing before drawing dead here. Record shows a turf/synth specialist, but he's bred to get the distance and may be able to save ground and make a late charge if he takes to the dirt/mud at all and avoids a big pinch. Huge ifs.

Twice the Appeal
Pretty similar on paper to 2009's bomb, Mine That Bird. Obviously have to respect Borel, but will probably lead to an overbet. Has yet to show any signs of winning a GS at this distance. He'll be well back of the pace and will probably stay there.

Stay Thirsty
Well bred colt who looked good winning the Gotham, though his time was not outstanding. Ran backwards in the Fla. Derby where he never relaxed with the blinkers. Recent works point to solid form and he'd benefit from the rain, but he's yet to show the scentilating speed to put him on top.

Decisive Moment
Yet to prove much at the graded level, and lacks the class to bank on. May show some early speed but would be a complete shocker if he's still a factor down the stretch.

Comma to the Top
Will be looking to set the pace after nearly wiring in the SA Derby and Valenzuela on board. Stellar 2yo campaign on the Cali synthetic, hasn't found that form yet in three starts this year. Still think he can stay up for a piece if he's allowed the lead and not caught in suicidal fractions.

Pants on Fire
La. Derby winner isn't getting much respect and should provide some good value for the exotics, especially if the track goes sloppy. It will be interesting to see if they chase Comma to the Top early on or settle in just behind. Honestly, I don't quite know what to make of him.

Dialed In
Favorite because, well, he won his last prep and has been training like he's ready to improve, but far, far from a sure thing. His kick is consistent as is his heart, but it's 50/50 at best he even finds the room to uncork in time. Not sure he even has the speed to mow em all down, but in this race he may not need it. I like his consistency and form, connections can't be beat and the son of Mineshaft should take to the added distance.

Derby Kitten
Improving colt showed a nice kick in the Lexington to get this post, just couple races removed from the claiming ranks, which if you follow the Ramsey Barn, is not quite as alarming as you'd think. What is alarming is his lone performance on dirt. Maybe he'll take to it this time around, but not sure he can hang in mid pack here or has the speed to close from the clouds.

Twinspired
Another synthetic specialist who figures to be well off the pace and has the right jockey and a name right out of the book of Jim Nantz. Will this be a win for the ages? As good as it gets? Can he outrun his odds towards a rock-chalk championship? Don't count on it.

Master of Hounds
Love his pedigree and the game effort for place in Dubai. But colour me skepical that he'll be ready to roll 1-1/4 just days removed from quarintine after shipping from Europe. On class alone, he's a solid play for the exotics, but would've loved to have seen a strong work prior to this.

Santiva
Like his GSW on this track last year, but while I can toss out a dud on synthetic with traffic problems, it's hard to forgive his BG Stakes performance. You'd hope he had the chops to run himself out of that weak field. I think they'll try and get him closer to the pace here, which would help his chances and his pedigree is heavy on stamina. Without a strong showing here he'll probably be back in a NWx1 allowance. Doesn't exactly scream Derby winner but neither did Mine That Bird.

Mucho Macho Man
Gamer was a disappointment in the La. Derby, but it wasn't a flop and he's been working very well since. I'd like to see him sent from the start and see if the other speedsters can match his pace and stamina. Lot of room for improvement and think he could end up being the best of this bunch down the road, maybe it starts right here.

Shackleford
Ran his eyeballs out in the Fla. Derby, nearly wiring the field at 60-1. Has outrun his odds in nearly every race and his recent works show he's still in top form. Not sure he'll be able to get the lead here, and while he's shown some ability to rate, he'll have to step up to another level to go the distance. Don't think he has that level.

Midnight Interlude
First, the obvious: un-raced as a juvy, which hasn't led to Derby success since the Chester A. Arthur administration. But he's improved every time out this year, capped off by a strong final panel to take the SA Derby. Has the early speed to save ground and follow Shackleford to the front, and the ability to rate. Trainer's record here is a huge plus and his form is impeccable right now. Looks primed for a big run but there are two major hurdles: can he hold off the late chargers at this distance and how will this green runner handle adversity?

Animal Kingdom
Spiral winner has made his run in every race so far, but none of which were over the dirt. Distance shouldn't be a factor and he settles in off the pace. Like the way he's been training and like his versatility, which is a must coming from this post. Assuming he handles the track, his late kick could put him on the board at a nice price.

Soldat
Poised for greatness before the Fla. Derby flop. Had he even just hit the board in that one, you'd probably be looking at the co-favorite. His workouts since have been ok, and if he's feeling fresh at post time he'll make some noise. Must get out clean and save ground and you'll know if he's near the lead that he's ready to run. I like him to rebound and find the board.

Nehro
Backside buzz horse whose furious finishes in the Ark. and Tampa Derbys, along with his pedigree, makes you think he'll appreciate the added distance. If he can slink to the back early and save ground, he'll be coming hard late assuming he gets the space and you have to like how he's improved race to race. Will likely be an underlay but is dangerous.

Watch Me Go
Yes, Big Brown pulled it off from out here, but this fella had trouble finishing the Illinois Derby for crying out loud. Did look solid winning the TB Derby at huge odds, but it had fluke written all over it. I guess if you don't play you can't win, but not sure he'd win an allowance tomorrow.

So, my initial superfecta-box looks something like this...
Midnight Interlude
Animal Kingdom
Nehro
Mucho Macho Man
But really, just throw a dart or pick your favorite name. This one's gonna be interesting, and probably pretty slow.

Kentucky Derby 135: handicapped space

What other sporting event could comprise the likes of a 75 year old retired principal, the ruler of Dubai, Jenny Craig, and a high rollin' Wall Street hedge fund? These are but a handful of the owners with a stake in this year's Kentucky Derby, which the compulsively cerebral Broseph and I have dissected below. Once again, it looks like a strong chance the track will be soupy, closely resembling the overflow from infield porta-pottys. Remember, in these economic times of woe, you might as well bet all you have left. Trust us...

(1) West Side Bernie (Elliot/Breen; 30-1) Death Row Stables colt had Solid 2yo campaign, has been spotty in his 3 starts this year. Nice 2nd in The Wood, though I Want Revenge cooked him in the stretch after fighting through a hellacious trip. Wouldn’t be shocked if he got up for a taste if the pace is hot, and worth a shout out or two in the exotics at these odds. -Intern

(2) Musket Man (Coa / Ryan; 20-1) The big reason to like this horse is that he is the winner of the very underrated Illinois Derby (which produced the last wire-to-wire winner of the Derby, War Emblem). Last year, Recapturetheglory gave the Illinois prep some cred by running fifth at huge odds. The one thing that scares me about this horse is the pilot. Never been a real big fan of Eibar Coa, and the rail spot means he’ll need to hustle it up early or wait back and circle the huge field to get any sort of trip. -Broseph

(3) Mr. Hot Stuff (Velasquez / Harty; 30-1) Maybe I missed something here, but Johnny V has been riding for Pletcher since Shep was a pup, and now he jumps on with Eoin (pronounced Owen…don’t ask me) Harty. This could be nothing, or it could signify Velasquez’s interest in a live runner. Still, don’t think he has much chance with only one victory, that being against maidens, in his lifetime. With a name like his, I have no idea why his silks aren’t hot pink. -B

(4) Advice (Douglas/Pletcher; 30-1) Came from the clouds to nab the Lexington S, but has done little else against much weaker foes than he'll face here. Chanceless. -I

(5) Hold Me Back (Desormeaux/ Mott; 15-1) Stellar on the polytrack, evidenced by his roll in the Lanes End and commendable 2nd in the Blue Grass. Alas, a complete question mark on the dirt, let alone slop, but the aptly named colt is another stretch runner with plenty of wind and a Derby vet on board. He'll have to prove he can handle the track before getting a second look. -I

(6) Friesan Fire (Saez / Jones; 5-1) The pick. You only had to watch his victory in the Louisiana Derby to see the talent in this guy. Never needed to be asked for too much, handled the wet surface beautifully, and pulled away running straight as an arrow to win by more than 7 lengths. The knock against him is the ‘foundation’ he lacks by not running a mile-and-an-eighth, but I trust Larry Jones and remember that everyone said Barbaro was too lightly raced before his Derby victory. Not to mention that he was seven lengths better than Papa Clem last time out. -B

(7) Papa Clem (Bejerano / Stute; 20-1) Probably one of the better 20-1 shots in the Derby in a long time, Papa Clem comes off of a big win against then-favorite Old Fashioned in the Arkansas Derby. Naysayers will cry foul, saying that Old Fashioned was already injured at that point, but it’s still hard to knock a guy who has finished second to both PioneeroftheNile and Friesan Fire. Evan’s betting favorite because Beje is aboard. -B

(8) Mine That Bird (Borel, Woolley; 50-1) The white guy in this marathon, does not show he belongs from any angle. Last. -I

(9) Join in the Dance (Decarlo / Pletcher; 50-1) Not gonna lie, never heard of this jockey, but the trainer has been around a while. One of the better stories in this Derby is that this guy’s part-owner is Orlando’s Rashad Lewis (who has scored over 13,000 points…is that right?). He has also only won against maidens once, but he ran a tight second to Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby, so if you like MM, you probably think this guy can’t be too far behind, but pretty sure this guy will find the dance floor too crowded. -B

(10) Regal Ransom (Garcia, bin Suroor; 30-1) This is where it gets interesting. One of a pair from Dubai's Goldophin Stable, scored a nice upset win over neighbor Desert Party in the UAE Derby. Figures to right in behind the #9 at the top of the pace, but could just as easily get cooked in the opening half. I like him on an off track with breathable fractions, but it's hard to side with the Dubai contingency until they prove they belong in the Triple Crown. -I

(11) Chocolate Candy (Smith / Hollendorfer; 20-1) If you’re looking for a longshot with an angle, this is your horse. He has yet to run on the conventional dirt, but many say that his lineage is built for the surface, so he could take a huge step forward. He has lost only twice in six starts (both to PioneeroftheNile), so even though he may not catch him, he can hang with the rest. The drawback to his parentage is that a mile-and-a-quarter may not be to his liking, which is unfortunate, because that’s how long this race is. -B

(12) General Quarters (Leparoux / McCarthy; 20-1) He’s got a great post position, and there’s no better jockey for this oval, but I am staying away from this guy. Put me in the camp that thinks his best is back in Lexington. Plus, the Bluegrass winner in 2008, Monba, beat zero horses in the Derby last year, so I wouldn’t call that a ringing endorsement. Yeah, yeah…the trainer is a confused, old high school teacher with only one horse, but save that crap for Hollywood. I’ll wait for it to come out on DVD. -B

(13) I Want Revenge (Talamo/ Mullins; 3-1) Has everything you'd expect from an eventual Derby champ: successive wins and 100+ Beyers since moving from Poly to the dirt, and versatile speed. Couldn't catch Pioneer of the Nile out west, but the potential for even more improvement is there. Literally gave the field a 3 second head start in the Wood, and romped anyway. Talamo is an emerging star, but just dipping his short, stubby toes into the shallow end in his first Derby mount. Expect him to rate just off the pace, and we'll see what he's made of in the final quarter. Clean trip, or no clean trip, should be a major factor. -I

(14) Atomic Rain (Bravo/ Breen; 50-1) One career win came in a maiden at 5f...improving colt has looked sharp over the CD track, but he's running against a lot more than the stopwatch here. I'd save my longshot ticket for others. -I

(15) Dunkirk (Prado/ Pletcher; 4-1) Without a doubt, the most intriguing colt in the field. Some are hailing this $3.7 million dollar purchase as the next Superhorse, but with only 3 career starts, remains a complete enigma. Unraced at 2, which has not been a successful Derby path since 1882, you have to think his best is still well in front of him. Ran a huge 2nd in the Fla Derby, considering it was his first go-round at the graded level, only his 3rd lifetime start, and he yielded to who many believe is the top 3yo, Quality Road. His works scream that he's as live as anyone else, and his regal bloodline and flashy connections cannot be ignored. Should be in the crowded middle of the pack real estate, and will have his chance to show us if he's ready for this stage. If you are willing to overlook history, and take a chance on potential, here he is. -I

(16) PioneeroftheNile (Gomez / Baffert; 4-1) There was no more successful jockey last year than G-squared, and if you watched the ‘Jockeys’ episode with him making a cameo, all I can say is prima donna, which makes him fit right in with the trainer. Still, as much as it pains me to say it, this could be the best of the bunch. He doesn’t win by much, but he has yet to lose, and that includes a battle against morning-line favorite, I Want Revenge. The one knock is the surface switch, since it seems as if the entire state of California is covered in some form of Polytrack. But, to speak to my audience here, if horses were ranked in the RPI, this one’s SOS would be #1. -B

(17) Summer Bird (Rosier/ Ice; 50-1) Makes 4th career start after cleaning up a spent field for 2nd in the Ark Derby. Like Dunkirk, he was unraced at 2 and shows promise, but unlike Dunkirk, he's simply not classy enough for this bunch. Seriously, huge ass. -I

(18) Nowhere to Hide (Bridgmohan / Zito; 50-1) This horse is aptly named, but don’t ever let Tricky Nick fool you. Zito has saddled the last two Belmont heartbreakers (Birdstone, Da Tara), and he always runs out of the odds the betting public puts on him in the big races. Still, there is absolutely zero to like when looking at his past performances: it took him five starts to break his maiden at Calder, that was his only win, he finished fourth in all three of his graded starts this year, and he has exactly 99 dollars more than the minimum $100,000 one would normally need to make the field. Still, Nick Zito is like that guy in the rated-R movie that you’re just not sure about… -B

(19) Desert Party (Dominguez / Suroor; 15-1) Both Dubai horses (Regal Ransom being the other) are all the rage on the backside because of their huge physical presence, and to the paddock watchers, they will be tough to lay off of. I tend to side with this one rather than Ransom, and DP was purchased for over 2 million bucks as a two-year-old. Since he likes to come off the pace, his seemingly poor post position may not be as bad as one would like to believe. Still, he has yet to run on U.S. soil and the Derby isn’t a time to be learning on the job. -B

(20) Flying Private (Albarado/ Lukas; 50-1) Gets the benefit of Lucas and Robby, but that's where it ends. Might be the most capable of the 50-1's, but has shown little to suggest he can outkick the faves. -I

Broseph’s Picks

1.Friesan Fire: looked very professional in his last win; will be fresh

2.I Want Revenge: his Wood victory is the stuff of legends; check Youtube

3.Desert Party: expensive colt who's ready to fire

4.PioneeroftheNile: he’s won ‘em all, just not convincingly

5.Chocolate Candy: these two should run together

Intern

1. Friesan Fire

2. Papa Clem

3. Pioneer of the Nile

4. Desert Party

5. I Want Revenge

Breeder's Cup: runneth over

In a world brimming with cups---Ryder, Stanley, Sprint, DD's---the Breeder's Cup stands alone as sports' richest event. This year, the Cup gets a taste of Title IX and, for the very first time, a synthetic track. Tomorrow, we find out if Curlin does indeed belong in the short list of all time greats, and in case you were wondering what Title IX tastes like, kitty litter. And now, for your betting pleasure:

Friday

Sentient Flight Group Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

Broseph: Zaftig (6) hasn’t run since June 7, but she did toy with Indian Blessing the entire trip before drawing off by 4.5 lengths in the GI Acorn. Add Bejerano and give her the slight edge. Indian Blessing (5) is one-for-one on a synthetic surface, winning at Santa Anita in January, and Baffert will be a popular play out West. She looks to be overbet but should be in the exacta. Indyanne (2) has never left GIII company, but her two-for-two score on synthetic surfaces gives her an advantage over the rest, and her $375,000 price tag shows that her best days are ahead of her.

Picks: 6-5-2

Intern: 12-3-5

Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

Intern: 11-Saucey Evening has had some rough trips in her 4 career starts, so look for Gomez to steer her straight into the winner's circle this time around. 7-Consequence makes her 3rd career start and looks poised to hoof it on up to the next level. At least that's what she told me. 2-Laragh looked like a superstar earlier this month at Keeneland and if there is anything left in tank, she'll be the one to catch.

Broseph:11-5-8

Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies

Broseph: Two-year-old races are built on potential, price tags, and connections, and Be Smart (1) has all three. Priced at $325,000 with Lukas and Gomez in charge, this horse is making her third career start, but she did a lot of damage in the GI Alcibiades last time out and gave Dream Empress all she could handle on the synthetic track at Keeneland. Stardom Bound (10) boasts the best resume, already winning two GI’s and never missing the board in four starts. Add in the fact that synthetic tracks are all she’s ever known, and no surprise why she’s the chalk. Sky Diva (4) has won by a combined 14 lengths in her first two starts and should build off of that.

Picks: 1-10-4

Intern: 11-4-2

Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf

Intern: 3-Forever Together already has 2 GI's wins in the bag this year, and done so in dominant fashion. 5-Wait a While is the epitome of consistent and has been on point so far this year. She loves the distance and a perfect 2 for 2 on this course. In 8 starts this year 7-Mauralakana has yet to finish worse than 2nd. Hard to keep this champ off the board.

Broseph: 5-7-8

Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic

Broseph: It’s hard to pick against Zenyatta (1) who is an insane 7 for 7 on synthetic surfaces and 8 for 8 lifetime. There aren’t many singles on this card, but this could be one of them in a short field. Kinda seems like she scared everyone else off. If anybody can catch her, Ginger Punch (6) has the best shot. She won this race last year in the slop, so she has the experience edge. Add the Frankel/Bejerano edge, and she’s got a glimmer of hope. Carriage Trail (5) has a solid synthetic record, took the Keeneland Spinster her last out by seven, and is coming off two straight 103+ speed ratings.

Picks: 1-6-5

Intern: 6-1-5

Saturday

Breeders’ Cup Marathon

Intern: 4-Sixties Icon is custom built for the 1 1/2, many American horses are not. He's coming in on a roll, winning his last 3 in Europe, all GIII's. 3-Delightful Kiss comes in very live and a winner of his last two. He's won on the synthetic and gets the ultra-patient and dapper Calvin Borel in the saddle. 8-Cedar Mountain comes back from a 3 mo. layoff but has not missed the board in 4 starts this year.

Broseph: 6-4-7

Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

Broseph: Pretty weak field, considering only one is coming off of a GI start, so this one should be a blanket at the wire. Give the edge to Fleeting Spirit (2) who only lost the GI Longchamp by 3 lengths and has hit the board 7 of 8 lifetime starts on turf. Diabolical (8) took a trip to Europe and ran a grueling schedule that should have him ready to make a big return to the States. Although a long shot, Rouse the Cat (7) gets Edgar Prado and showed some life in his last out, getting nosed at the wire by other runner True to Tradition.

Picks: 2-8-7

Intern: 11-2-13

TVG Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

Intern: 8-Well Armed has been on fire this year and has faced the best of the best. I think the mile will suit him splendidly, especially if he's allowed the early lead. 1-Lewis Michael has only raced twice since finishing a distant 5th in this race last year over the slop at Monmouth. He's shown improvement in his 2 races this year and is a synthetic track phenom.

Broseph: 1-8-7

Breeders’ Cup Mile

Broseph: The Shadwell trio all made it, but they may be in over their heads here. Goldikova (4) won the aforementioned Longchamp last out, and if he can reproduce that effort, he’ll be tough to beat. Kip Deville (2) won this race last year and followed it up with a Makers Mark Mile victory, but he’s fallen off a bit since then. If he can round back to form, he’ll be tough. Precious Kitten (3) was a beaten favorite last out, and she has a chance to sneak up on the rest this time.

Picks: 4-2-3

Intern: 11-4-3

Bessemer Trust Breeders’ Cup Juvenile

Intern: 12-Bushranger handled the best 2yo's in Europe and is by far the most successful horse in the field to date. Not sure how he's going to handle the travel and the track, but at 6-1 ML it's tough to turn down. 4-Square Eddie made is US debut earlier this month by romping in the Futurity at Keeneland. The scary thing is he might actually be primed to improve, and if that is the case then I'm not sure anyone in this bunch can catch him. 11-Midshipman won the DelMar Furturity back in Sept and seemed to lose a little focus in his first try at this distance in the Norfolk. Baffert is merely picking his spots these days so I expect a good effort here.

Broseph: 1-11-12

Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

Broseph: Again, two-year-olds are a tough bunch, but the pricy Coronet of a Baron (7) was sold for over a half-million bucks, and he performed admirably, losing by a nose in the Del Mar Futurity. Although he has no turf starts, synthetic surface is usually a pretty good indication of how they’ll fair. Grand Adventure (12) is taking a step up, but he’s 2 for 2 on the grass, so he rates a chance. Pletcher and Velazquez team up to give Bittel Road (11) a good shot in his 4th lifetime start.

Picks: 7-12-11

Intern: 10-11-3

Sentient Flight Group Breeders’ Cup Sprint

Intern: 4-Midnight Lute is back to defend the crown in only his 3rd start since. He was soundly beaten back in August after an 8 mo. rehab, but his recent works over the the cushion say he's ready to uncork another gem. A hot pace in the dash for the cash would set up beautifully for the closing 2-Street Boss, who already has two GI wins this year. 7-In Summation has been spotty this year but has a ton of experience at this level and has the speed to get loose.

Broseph: 2-1-3

Emirates Airline Breeders’ Cup Turf

Broseph: A couple of former winners in this field, but Grand Couturier (3) is coming off an insane 10-length score in the GI Turf Classic at Belmont, and anything close to that form will be tough to beat. If the turf is moist, give him an even bigger edge. Red Rocks (2) will have to settle for second this year but looks like a live one after being the only horse this year to boast a win over monster-stud Curlin. Soldier of Fortune (4) was game enough to get third place in the Arc de Triomphe, the most prestigious turf race in the world.

Picks: 3-2-4

Intern: 9-3-5

Breeders’ Cup Classic

Broseph: Rick Dutrow’s terrible karma finally caught up with him and ruined a wonderful showdown, but this is Curlin’s (9) meeting with destiny. The last GII this horse ran in was the Arkansas Derby in 2007. Since then, he has won 8 of 12 GI showdowns, including the Stephen Foster, in which he carried ten more pounds than any other horse. Synthetic Scare ‘08 will only make more money for us, and my advice is to sit back and enjoy this one. Student Council (7) battled and ran gamely with superhorse Commentator two back, and he looks to put some value in the exacta. Go Between (1) likes the synthetic surface and has earned over 2.7 million lifetime.

Picks:9-7-1

Intern: 9-5-11

And we now return you to your regularly scheduled hysteria.

Kentucky Derby: 1-3-to-the-4

Clyde van Dusen…that’s the only horse ever to win the Derby out of the 20 post, and he did it in 1929, and he sounds like he was named after a huge dork. But, undaunted, odds on favorite Big Brown and his trainer Rick Dutrow passed on the 1, 2, 18, and 19 and went for number 20. Now, I can relate with being disoriented at Fourth Street Live (although I’m not proud of it with all the jorts and ankle tats and all), but you would think Dutrow would wear his sober hat until after the draw. Still, makes you wonder if he knows something we all don’t. Guess we’ll wait and see. Twenty horses short on experience but long in stride + 200,000 drunks + Kid Rock= your guess is as good as ours.

Post Position Tidbits: Since 1900, 82% of Derby winners have come from posts 1-10…of all the posts, the 5 and the 1 have gleaned the most winners (12) although the last horse to win from the 1 was Ferdinand (1986)…even though the 20 has only one winner, only 15 horses have ever broken from the 20, so the percentage is a bit misleading.

Derby Prep Tidbits: In the past 20 years, Derby winners have come from Santa Anita (6), Bluegrass (5), Wood (4), Arkansas (3), Illinois (1), and Florida Derby (1)…75% of the Derby winners have been in the exacta in their final prep…only eight horses have won their final prep before the Derby (last one being Barbaro in 2006). --Broseph

(1) Cool Coal Man: another curious victim of the Bluegrass Stakes, which saw this rapidly improving Fountain of Youth winner finish a distant 9th. I would be willing to throw that first foray on the Poly out, except for this ominous post position. Nineteen horses haphazardly breaking from the gate to his right means this pace stalker had better find a spot quick. The connections are there: Zito-Leparoux-Farish, as is the stock: Mineshaft, but there’s nothing that tells me this colt will be the first since ’86 to win from the rail. --Intern

(2) Tale of Ekati: Was able to catch lightning-fast War Pass in the last strides, but War Pass ran stupid fractions, and not sure if they’re going to go out quite that quick on Derby Day. Also, I mentioned shortly after the Wood Memorial that the Ragozin Rating on the race was poor. Whether or not you put any weight into somewhat arbitrary numerical rankings (and by the way in which we Cat fans watched the RPI, you do), the Wood was one of the weakest prep races of the year. Probably ran his best race in New York. --Broseph

(3) Anak Nakal: This will be Evan’s pick because he has a complete man crush on Bejerano, but this horse has little chance. All Zito has been saying all week is, “We need to hope for another Giacomo.” You can say that he’s got something under his sleeve, but it seems to me that he is being sincere. Very little to like at this point. --Broseph

(4) Court Vision: This horse hasn’t won in his last two (with the Fountain of Youth being a bit of a disappointment), but he knows how to hit the board. In his last two preps, he has come rolling in from off the pace to finish a game third. The trip he gets Saturday is worrisome, but I refuse to keep him out of exotics because he will have enough late kick to hit the board again. Even though War Pass is out, there will still be pace (Bob Black Jack, Recapturetheglory) to run at. --Broseph

(5) Eight Belles: When it comes to horses, losing to a girl doesn’t exactly carry the connotation it does for us humans. After all, we’re dealing with horses (and females) here and they lack rationale. But there is also a reason why they run the Oaks and successful exceptions to the rule have been very few and far between. This is a terrific filly who would dominate her “girls” in the Oaks. Although her daddy Unbridled won this race back in ’90, this is not Winning Colors, nor Rags to Riches for that matter. She certainly isn’t doomed, but it would require more than she’s shown thus far. --Intern

(6) Z Fortune: The “other” Asmussen entry ran the best race of his young life last month in the Arkansas Derby…unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to get by Gayego that day, though, considering he broke from the 11th hole and was 4-5 wide the whole way, it may have been just as impressive of a trip. He crawls in his works but he’s a striking colt with some versatility and Albarado gets the mount. Might be ready to uncork his best stuff. --Intern

(7) Big Truck: Bitten by the Bluegrass bug (11th), the Tampa Derby champ would appear primed for a solid rebound effort. At least, that’s what his sizzling workouts suggest. He may not have a Hemi, but he does have Barclay Tagg. Huge stamina questions though as he failed to fire in his two starts at 1 1/8th. Not sure he can rate with this group. --Intern

(8) Visionaire: Don’t put much stock into jockeys, but Lezcano is pretty green. Plus, I never listen to good news prior to the Derby as far as workouts and morning gallops (excepting Colonel John’s monster 5-furlong workout in 57.80), but I always listen to the bad news….and there is some bad news surrounding Visionaire’s pedigree and his last workout. Apparently, he didn’t gallop out like many would have wanted him, and his chances are slim at best. --Broseph

(9) Pyro: not winning the Bluegrass is fine. With a talent like this a trainer really just wants to keep them healthy and fine tuned, but also fresh. It’s why Borel didn’t push the ‘all-out’ button in last year’s Bluegrass, for example. But you certainly hope to do better than 10th. True, some horses just don’t take to the Poly, but it’s pretty rare that a horse flat refuses to run on it. With a less-than-stellar 4f breeze at Churchill last week, you have to wonder if he left it all in Louisiana, he’s hurt, or the connections are simply playing some ball. The Bluegrass was his first career dud, and he’s far too fast and powerful to not be there in the end…unless of course, he’s not fit. But at 6/1 I’ll bet that he is. --Intern

(10) Colonel John: His results speak for themselves: 1st or 2nd in all six lifetime starts, as does his speed: 57 and change over the Churchill dirt last week. He is game, versatile, and very live. He also ships from California, where the beer flows like wine, where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano, and where there is nary a dirt track to be found. Though all 6 starts have been over the cushion, that 5f bullet on Churchill’s dirt suggests the surface will not be an issue. With an impressive win from the clouds in the Santa Anita, the sexy workout, favorable post position, and the infinite amount of John’s at betting booths out there looking for any sign at all (guilty), don’t be surprised if he’s at least a co-favorite come Saturday. Hard to argue. --Intern

(11) Z Humor: Trainer Billy Mott is simply one of the best in the biz, and while his dominance has recently been felt on the turf, he wouldn’t be in here if he didn’t think he could win it (this might sound obligatory, but it most certainly is not). Impeccably bred for this track but he’s yet to win in ’08, so you have to wonder if he has the thirst for the finish line necessary to navigate through 19 other foes. It will be interesting to see where they try to rate him, as he lacks the speed to sit atop the pace, and has had little success from off the pace. --Intern

(12) Smooth Air: had a helluva trip in the Florida Derby, but no one was sniffing Big Brown’s big brown that day. Still rounded that 1 1/8th in a solid 1:48, which is as good as any other horse in the field. Although he’s been on the sprint circuit most of his career, he’s handled the gradually added distance nicely and conditioner Bernie Stutts is a no-nonsense pillar on the Florida circuit. Intrigued. --Intern

(13) Bob Black Jack: Should be your leader at the half-mile pole. Again, if you think this year’s field is a slow one, it wouldn’t kill you to put him in your exotics, but I highly doubt he wires this field. Still, he’s added blinkers, and they may just tell Migliore to let him try and steal it. --Broseph

(14) Monba: Strong closer in the Bluegrass after a dismal Fountain of Youth. Pletcher is going to win the Derby one of these days, and this is his best shot this year. If you include the Cash Call Futurity, he seems to perform much better in Grade I’s than Grade II’s, so maybe he needs the competition around him to get the best from him. Also, doesn’t have a long way to ship from Lexington. --Broseph

(15) Adriano: if the son of A.P. Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare weren’t enough to command respect, Edgar Prado shuns Tale of Ekati for the keys to this regal Lanes End champ. Like Hard Spun a year ago, the connections decided to keep their colt on the shelf after conquering the Turfway Polytrack in March. Certainly a long layoff, but by no means a disqualifier. The only real concern I see is the obvious: 1 career race on dirt, 9th place (Fountain of Youth). His trainer thinks he’s the one to beat, and although the biased boastfulness should often be ignored, he appears to be primed for his best effort to date…if he handles the track…and 19 rivals. --Intern

(16) Denis of Cork: with only 4 lifetime starts notched into his saddle, this Florida bred (booo) is the obligatory mystery horse capable of sewing his way to stardom, or just as likely to be panic stricken by the buzz of 200k people and dense traffic. His first career start, and the only as a 2 year old, came over the Churchill track, and his workouts there have been impressive. Fortunate his hugely disappointing 5th in the Illinois Derby didn’t relegate him to the undercard, as his first try at 1 1/8th fell flat. But I like this colt as he reminds me a bit of Afleet Alex. But the Churchill track on the first Saturday in May is not the ideal time and place to make your 5th career start. --Intern

(17) Cowboy Cal: Plenty of readers here had him tagged as the winner of the Bluegrass, and he nearly delivered. Still, his best races seem to be run on turf, and the softer Polytrack lends much of an edge to grass runners. Much like Tale of Ekati, he left his best in his last race. Also, he will not be able to get out front in slow fractions and try to steal the race Saturday, like he almost did in Lexington. --Broseph

(18) Recapturetheglory: I have seen this horse picked anywhere from fifth to not on the board, but I can’t help but put him in the exotics because he could be on the front near the end. Much like Hard Spun and Lion Heart, he could round out a nice exacta if you have the faith. War Emblem was able to do it, and all I’ve been hearing this year is how “slow” the field is…so, why the hell not? --Broseph

(19) Gayego: unlike some, I was impressed by his victory in the Arkansas Derby. He may not have buried a stacked field, but he was pressed the whole way and held off a game Z Fortune in the stretch. I like his power and consistency, but this is a gnarly post position, especially for speed. Jockey Mike Smith will do what he can to get this colt comfortably near the front, but for a lightly raced 3 year old, you can’t expect much from the extreme outside. --Intern

(20) Big Brown: This horse's Florida Derby was awesome for many reasons: overcoming his post (12), setting fast fractions, and winning by daylight. Barbaro destroyed the myth that a lightly-raced horse can't win the Derby, and Big Brown took to the track well yesterday morning. Jill Byrne said his gallop was impressive because of the ground he can cover with each stride. Also, a wet track only helps this guy if he can stay on or near the lead. Shaky favorite, and you have to wonder about the post decision. --Broseph

Broseph’s Picks

1. Big Brown: move over Clyde van Dusen

2. Monba: like Andre Woodson, left Lex Vegas a winner

3. Court Vision: he likes third place…that’s cool with me

4. Recapturetheglory: can’t shake the War Emblem vibe

5. Pyro: maybe he just didn’t like the Polytrack

Intern's Picks

1. Colonel John: the outside speed could set up nicely for him

2. Adriano: in Edgar Prado I trust

3. Pyro: if he's right, he's capable going away

4. Big Brown: silly power and speed, silly post position

5. Smooth Air: saving his best?

Wrong day, right horse?

As this YouTube treasure attests, the mysterious Curlin is not the only animal reeling in the reality of that whole "losing to a girl" thing. Sure, his stablemates gave him hell for a while, but they know...they know they couldn't run the Rags down, either. Well, if Curlin thinks like Paul Simon, and I'd say that's a safe bet, he's eager for his "photo opportunity" and a "shot at redemption."

While The Haskell is but one out of a hefty bundle of lucrative Stakes races this time of year, there's a certain mystique implanted in its story, and is truly one of the top two or three races every summer. Glancing over the names of the past winners is like taking a roll call in Cooperstown: Forty Niner, Holy Bull, Skip Away, Point Given, just to name a few of the legends to conquer these 10 furlongs.

There's really no reason to think Curlin can't add his African-American name to that list today. His freak-like, allbeit small resume pre-Triple Crown crafted as many skeptics as believers, but his grit and domineering leg put everyone on board in the Preakness, and his near miss to a fresh lass at Belmont only solidified his talent. I'm not liberal with my "superhorse" tags, but Curlin certainly has the ingredients to take it to the next level. That being said, I'm looking to beat him today, and I'm going with my crush, AnyGivenSaturday. Maybe it's the first-time-at-the-races-pick-the-coolest-name in me, but I really think his ability is on par with Curlin and Street Sense. The Distored Humor colt is not only a physical monster, he's proven. This isn't some lightly challenge, mystery West Coaster here, AGS has raced against the best each time out, and that four-length stroll over NobizLikeShobiz in the Dwyer tells me this horse is live and ready. I'll be rooting for the hard-lucked Hard Spun (and I feel he'll be around 4-1 after Curlin and AGS), and the very fast and very green Cable Boy, but only to complete my trifecta.

Lawyer Ron raises the "bar", and oh yeah, Street Sense

Whomever is fortunate enough to purchase a Lawyer Ron foal in a couple of years pretty much has the 'name game' wrapped up. Who didn't love Kurt Russel and Martin Short's slice of cinema magestry, "Captain Ron"? The film may have been snubbed at the Oscar's, but let's see the man try and stop Captain Ron from the Triple Crown. The Lawyer's scintilating, record-breaking performance in the Whitney yesterday solidified my status as a genius, and fueled my disquiet over not including Ginger Punch in the Pick 4. Just when you thought the Classic would be a duel between the gifted three-year-olds, Lawyer Ron's masterdom over as classy a field as you'll see tells us otherwise. With Jambalaya in "reaux" of the Turf division mix, The Lawyer becomes Langfuhr's second legitimate BC threat. And a huge break for Pletcher, who needed another Stakes win in the worst way.


The party continues at the Spa today, with Derby winner/thoroughbred du' jour Street Sense making his return in the GII Jim Dandy. The Street's farewell tour was cemented when 'Chic' Mohammad reached into his bottomless pocket and pulled out the breeding rights, so we can only hope he'll stay sound through the Cup. Only 5 will challenge the phenom today, as it's no secret that a fresh and willing Street Sense cannot be sniffed by fellow three-year-olds (2-5 ML could've told you that). The steady CP West lacks flash...and wins, but could push the Street enough that he has to dig, especially if it's sloppy. I also really like Sightseeing at 10-1. After winning the Peter Pan in May, he was a distant 3rd in the Dwyer earlier this month...but a 3rd to AnyGivenSaturday and NobizLikeShobiz isn't exactly a dud. Very curious to see how Tiz Wonderful handles his first action since late last year. If you'll remember, this colt was sensational as a 2-year-old, winning all three of his starts that year in emphatic fashion, all triple-digit Beyer's. Coming off a tendon injury, his workouts have been, ehh, ok, so I'll have to wait one before I donate to the cause.

Are you watching yet?

I know I'm not exactly going out on a limb with this admission (God save me if I stink of Dick Vitale: "I really feel, that when it's all said and done, North Carolina will be good."), but I'm genueinely excited about today's [trumpets]Breeder's Cup Challenge at the Spa. There will always be the cartel of staunch purists who shudder at the thought of commercially appealing highjinx as they do Polytrack, and simply refuse to accept changes, er, improvements. But we have to be real, everybody wins when the numbers are up. The sport, much like tennis, desperately needed a way to make Average Joe care; care so much that he dips into his son's college fund to cover his superfecta combos. The 25 Graded Stakes comprising this here extravaganza make for some damn good rubbin', and hopefully, with the aid of some cute storylines and the perpetual decay of summertime sports in America, this clever "packaging" of a BC Series will bring back the casual fan. Sometimes you have to shake hands with the devil, and if ESPN wants to catapult this sport back into the mainstream, then I don't have a problem with it.

Diana S (F&M Turf)
I have special spot for the #6 My Typhoon, as I remember watching her pass through the sale and knew she'd be special. Sure enough, she comes in today seemingly at the summit, and lest we forget the King o' Turf himself, Sir Bill Mott at the helm. My only fear is a speed duel with Biancone's rabbit, #4 Snake Bit...I mean, Countess Scala, and the classy #3 Mauralakana, in which case the enormously gifted Irish-bred #5 Makederah from the "heavy"-hitting McLaughlin barn, could prove the paper to be correct. Still, Mott's filly is tested, quick, and peaking, so I'll give her the nod.

Vanderbilt S (Sprint)
Without question, the runner-up for best race on the card. Myriad of talent in here headed by #5 Diabolical. Very consistent, and unraced since winning the Md. Sprint H on Preakness Day. He's hit triple digit Beyers in his last two starts, and has a couple recent bullets to show he's still primed. As much as I fien for a price, I don't see any reason why he'd lay a dud. Although, I like the #2 Cougar Cat to even the score with #7 Benny the Bull, and he's a ripe 5-1 ML, but no, I'm sticking with the 5...2...5.

Go for Wand S (Distaff)
A modest field of 6, all with a shot. #5 Ginger Punch has been strong all year, most recently romping the GII First Flight S at Belmont earlier in the month. Perhaps even more impressive, was her strong runner-up to Take D'Tour in the Phipps in June. I love Awesome Again, and in case you haven't noticed, this Frankel/Bejarano marriage is quite sweet indeed. But can she go 1 1/8 and 2 turns with this bunch? I'm looking for a price here, and I'm not gonna get it from Punch, #2 Ermine, or #4 Teammate. I'm looking at the rail, and the longshot #1 Soul Search. Trainer Neil Howard always seems to pick his spots nicely, and even though this mare is winless in her last handfull, she's been steady among solid competition. Assuming a clean, ground saving trip, and some hot early cooking, I expect her to show some kick in the stretch, and hopefully "Red Giant" this crew.

Whitney H (Classic)
Behold, the sweet fruits of "The Challenge." The race of the year thus far in my opinion, today's starting gate could very well mirror that of the actual Classic. For the most ardent of racing fans, standing by the paddock will be like walking onto the set of Ocean's 13 (what? You don't think Pletcher could make a runner out of Elliot Gould?). You have your Clooney in the scintilating #7 Magna Graduate. Not only did he save his best stuff for his middle-racing-age-years, but his back-to-back 106 Beyer's against stout competition, suggest he's poised for steady stream of blockbusters. And we all know how much Clooney loves to pretend he was, indeed, a Magna Graduate, even though I don't even think that's even in the lexicon of Northern Kentucky University. #2 Papi Chullo, a late-blooming Cadillac, was the equivalent of a quarterback getting drafted first by an awful team and being shoved under center from day 1. Or, the way Don Cheadle had to do "Meteor Man" before he got "Hotel Rwanda." He landed in Gary Contessa's barn early this year, and culminated his resurgence with a sublime (110 Beyer) effort in the Birdstone S on Belmont Day against a solid field. IEAH just bought-in for a slice, and they certainly don't miss much. #1 Flashy Bull was more than stellar in the Stephen Foster, running down Magna Graduate with relative ease, en route to his 4th win in a row. Those Holy Bull's are runners now; consistent and handsome, like a Matt Damon. There's nothing to suggest he won't be there at the end, ah, except for that post position. His freshness concerns me as well. At the age of 5 and out with a typically career-ending injury, to see #3 Brass Hat back among the elite is miraculous. Just when you though his "Scarface" days had been replaced by "Two for the Money" antics, he comes out and sets a track record in a solid allowance a few weeks back at Churchill. But I can't see him being ready for this group quite yet. I'm going with #11 Lawyer Ron, and his Pitt-like sex-appeal. Let's not forget how dominant this colt was as a 3-year-old, before a nightmare trip in the Derby pretty much took it out of him for the rest of the year. Hey, "Babel" sucked, but we learn to forgive. He's since moved onto the Midas straw of the Pletcher barn, and hasn't missed the money yet in 07. So he's missed for all of it of late, but looks sharper each time out, and I expect to see even more improvement today. I like his tactical speed, his recent works, and that juicy 6-1 ML. Ok, I love it. There, I said it.

Ticket:
7: 6
8: 5
9: 1,4
10: 11

Yes, bears do

Occasionally, a question will be thrown your direction, the content of which is so self-evident, that it warrants the counter-query we all learned in grade school: "Does a bear shit in the woods?" Such was the case a couple of months back while taking in an afternoon of 10 cent returns and 5 dollar beers with a few buddies at Six Flags over Churchill Downs. After watching a Patrick Biancone trained-Coolmore owned-Leparoux steered-filly scorch the track in a half of a cigarette (Biancone time), my friend asked me if I thought Biancone was, as he so elequently stated, "juicin' these girls?" Bears moving bows in their natural habitat is not my favorite quip, as its legendary status has lead to gross overuse But Biancone's reputation for dirty tactics was the worst kept secret in the Bluegrass and beyond. So when Biancone's garrison of barns were siezed by the KHRA last week at Keeneland, the only person surprised was probably Biancone himself, that it took this long.

Nevertheless, kudos to the KHRA and Keeneland for taking a stand. The fact that a singular governing body still eludes thoroughbred racing in these United States is a separate rant unto itself, but the porousness of the current set-up is rife with loopholing horsemen, giggling in line at the bank with but a small welt on the wrist. My heart bleeds for Steve Asmussen when he gets a $2,500 fine for positive tests after his stable has made off with millions in winnings. Not to single out The Frenchy and The Ass Man (sitcom?), but one only had to look at Biancone's lengthy track record. Run out of Eurpoe, banned in Hong Kong, and now a major hiccup in Kentucky. The word from the Keeneland backside is that there's more than enough evidence to expel Biancone from the Commonwealth, which is a serious death blow to anyone in this business. Now it's up to the KHRA to pull the trigger and send a message to the super-stables that you'd better leave your snake venom on the reservation, the cocaine in the limo, the EPO in the...well, you get the idea.

Just look around. Turn on the TV, browse the web. Cheating is in. From Armstrong, to Landis, Sosa to Bonds, the media is feeding us truck loads of accusations and consumers are eating it up and asking for seconds. If the smoke ever settles around baseball I fear that the cannons will be pointed toward horse racing, an onslaught I doubt the sport's fragile legs withstand. Horsemen and gamblers aside, racing fans are turned on to the purity of the sport; the unfettered grace of a horse as it gives its all doing the only thing it knows how. When you jeopardize integrity, you stand to lose it all. Hopefully, the only losers in all of this will be the ones winning the wrong way.

We're waiting....

Another year, another foiled Triple Crown. With the talent that has conquered the Derby over the years, I'm beginning to think Affirmed's successful Trinity in '78 is safe for the long haul. Not to ignore the splendor of animals like Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and Thunder Gulch, but just in the past few years the sweet taste of Triple Crown has been crudely purged from our mouths--as it was on Saturday with Curlin's remarkable stride past Street Sense.

First, it was the dangerously athletic and substantially lucrative Fusaichi Pegasus, who came into the Triple Crown in 2000 with more hype than a new Star Wars installment. After gassing the Derby field he came up short in the Preakness to a fresh Red Bullet. War Emblem? Close, but no cigar...or in his case, no flesh cigar. Not many people gave the sack-less Funny Cide much of a chance in '03, but perhaps a rough rail trip through the ankle deep mud at Belmont is all that hindered history that year...well, that and the fact that Empire Maker was a beast when he wanted to be. Smarty Jones? Oh, what should have been. I will continue to tell myself that Barbaro had the necessary ingredients to sweep the Crown, but I guess Billy Joel was right.

Fu-Peg. Smarty Jones. Barbaro. Street Sense. Hell, even Afleet Alex and Curlin. All superstars, and yet we still wait. There are those who say that the industry needs another TC champion. I believe those cries are mostly from the outside looking in, for the annual anticipation of another Affirmed-like feat keeps the masses tuning in each year. And then there's the gambling, which isn't going anywhere, and if certain Gubernatorial elections play out as expected, will only be expanding. No, I believe horse racing is good to go for the forseeable future, although I do worry about the drugs. Let's face it, trainers and owners will continue to cheat, or loophole, however you choose to paint it, and as soon as the media is through with baseball and Lance Armstrong,I fear they may leech onto horse racing "like flies on a ribroast."

Rest easy Affirmed. (pours his Natty light to the ground)

Pre Preakness Preview

Winning Derby jockey Calvin Borel traded rubbing hooves for rubbing elbows at the White House, trainer Carl Nafzger thrusted back into the spotlight, and Street Sense became a star. Indeed, the Kentucky Derby, sorry, the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Foods constructs legends, but the Preakness legitimizes them. Each year, the winner on the first Saturday in May trots into Maryland with the hope of becoming the first Triple Crown Champion since Affirmed in '78, and trade their blanket of roses for a smattering of Black Eyed Susans (no, not Dennis Rodman's current girlfriend, the flower). Will we have another Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown, well, at stake? Let's just hope it goes better than last year.


1. Mint Slewlep—Cute name, wrong event. This colt is this year’s local flavor, but there’s not much here to suggest he can run with this class. He failed to hit the board in his only two previous graded stakes races, and the rail will not do him any favors. Good luck.

2. Xchanger—Impressive win in a stakes at Pimlico in April, this colt appears to be on the upswing. And, he’s the only horse in the field to run on this track, which is nice. The added distance shouldn’t be a problem, but the added talent should. He’ll have to prove he belongs with this group before I waste a Shrute-Buck on him.

3. Circular Quay—It’s obvious that trainer Todd Pletcher is getting sick of this “never won a Triple Crown race” tag, as this colt was entered at the 11th hour. Only in the Derby can a 6th place finish be considered good, but thinking about the all-stars that finished behind him, it is. Throw in the fact that he ran the Derby off an 8 week layoff after winning the Louisiana Derby in March, and that 6th place gets even sexier. As one of the lone closers in the field a grueling pace would be ideal. A definite play at the current odds.

4. Curlin—Making only his 5th career start, Curlin remains somewhat of an uncertainty. His distant 3rd place finish after a rough trip in the Derby prompted many to jump off the bandwagon, but this is not a 20 horse field. He’s still an extremely powerful colt with plenty of speed, and I don’t know how you can leave him off a trifecta ticket. His meager experience is glaring, but so are his results.

5. King of the Roxy—After getting clipped at the wire by Tiago in the Santa Anita Derby, Pletcher immediately pointed this colt for Pimlico. With a month to train for a specific race, there’s really no excuse for him to throw in a dud. He proved he was more than a sprinter at Santa Anita, and he gets the red hot Garrett Gomez in the reigns. More amazing: this colt was purchased for a mere $8,000 as a yearling; a Kia that runs like a Jaguar, not bad.

6. Flying First Class—If there’s one certainty in this race, it’s that this guy will be the pace setter. How fast he’s forced to go remains to be seen. Sometimes, a rabbit is allotted the lead to the extent that he’s able to put it in cruise. If that’s the case, he could be a factor, but there’s just too much other speed in here to think he’ll have much left in the stretch. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is a Preakness master, and his romp in the Derby Trial earlier this month suggests he can go the distance, but is he fresh enough to do it again? Worth a look, but would be a surprise.

7. Hard Spun—Ran his eyeballs out in nearly wiring the Derby field, and with Flying First Class to his inside, should be able to slide right in underneath him. Detractors will say he ran too fast in the Derby to be fresh two weeks later, but this is a classy colt with plenty of leg. With a jockey (Pino) who knows this course as well as Calvin Borel knows Churchill, it’s hard to envision him not being there at the end. Might be exhausted, but might be ready to explode too.

8. Street Sense—Not much needs to be said here: he was the best as a 2yo, and continues to be at 3. His Derby effort was nothing short of astounding, closing from 19th place at the ¼ pole to rout his rivals, maybe breaking a sweat along the way. His recent work late last week shows he’s still in top form, and maybe, just maybe, has room to improve. Scary thought. The hope of the industry rests on his shoulders, and the best part about it, he has no idea.

9. CP West—Lightly raced, but very consistent…and expensive ($425,000 as a yearling). Trainer Nick Zito didn’t come here just for the crab cakes and pageantry, and his robust odds are enticing. He’s 0-2 as a 3 year old, but I think he’s yet to show his best stuff, and Edgar Prado aboard is a plus. If you’re looking for a price to bust up the chalk, this might be it.

My Picks:
1. Street Sense
2. Curlin
3. Hard Spun
4. CP West

Kentucky Derby 133...oh, sorry, the Yum! Foods Kentucky Derby 133

Betting tips:Don’t be turned off by prep non-winners. 3 year olds can show dramatic improvement from week to week, and those who came up short a month ago might be ready to turn the corner. Don’t ignore the dam when looking at bloodlines. Horses out of successful mares tend to do better in the Derby, regardless of Sire. And of course, if the rain holds up, look to see who’s mudda was a mudda. Don’t give a whole lot of merit to post positions, as a quality horse is a quality horse from anywhere on the track. Getting a clean and comfortable trip is more important than where you start from.

1. Sedgefield—Let’s see, a horse who’s yet to race on the dirt gets his first stab at it in the Kentucky Derby…and from the dreaded 1 hole. In short, anything decent here would be a surprise. He has shown consistency, and Leparoux is as good as they come, your average graded turf race, this is not. Good luck.

2. Curlin—Let’s just say Woo blindly picked a good one here in the morning line favorite. This horse has all the makings of a proverbial super-horse (picture him flying through the air in a cape), but will be racing against history here. He’s a perfect 3 for 3 this year, and hasn’t even been sniffed—he’s won his 3 races by a combined 28 lengths. The only problem: those are his only 3 career starts, and as we all know, it’s been 120 years since a horse won the Derby without racing as a 2 year old. As of now, Curlin is an enigma; dominating, but green. How he’ll handle the swarm of 150k drunkards, unyielding competition, and 18 horses to his right remains a mystery. Maybe he is a once-in-a-generationer, but I’ll have to wait one. Note: Curlin is named after the great grandfather of co-owner and Lexington attorney Shirley Allen Cunningham—who if you’ll remember was the Heavy Hitter before Daryl Isaacs even had warning track power.

3. Zanjero—This one intrigues me. At 30-1, my guess is he’ll get some decent play in a lot of exotics and come down a bit. In my opinion, this colt has yet to show us his best stuff, and his steady improvement throughout the year coupled with his solid works over the Churchill track tell me he may be ready to fire a gem. The added distance shouldn’t be much of an issue, and if the pace gets hot, this stretch runner just might drop a bomb. Don’t leave him off too many tickets.

4. Storm in May—It’s hard to put much merit on his 2nd in the Arkansas Derby, seeing as how Curlin was 10 ½ lengths ahead of him. He does have some quickness, but looks to be in over his head here. To add to the uncertainty, he’s blind in his right eye. That’s right, blind, just like in the movies. Gotta love it.

5. Imawildandcrazyguy—Purchased for a mere $17,000 as a yearling, it’s a surprise that he’s been this successful. He appeared to be knocking on the door early this year with a solid effort in the Risen Star, but has taken a step back in his last two starts. I’ll give him some slack for the 6th place in the Florida Derby, as he was almost went to his knees at the start. But there are too many other good prices out there attached to much better horses.

6. Cowtown Cat—I’m hearing from a lot of horsemen that this colt could be a surprise. You can’t knock his pedigree, and you certainly can’t knock his resume. One of five horses from the Pletcher supercenter, the Illinois Derby champ might also have his best effort ahead of him. If he can survive the break and get a clean avenue to the front, he could be tough.

7. Street Sense—You really couldn’t script this colt’s ascent to the Derby any better. He routed fellow rivals in the BC Juvenile as a 2 year old at this very track, took the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start of the year, and was barely nudged at the wire in the Bluegrass last month. His workouts have been flawless, as has his condition. With all his accomplishments, I believe he’s yet to be asked for his all, and his all just might bury this field. Assuming he gets a clean ride, he’ll be the one to beat. Note: Trainer Carl Nafzger returns to the Derby for the first time since 1990, where he saddled the victor, Unbridled. Also, facing long historical odds, as no Juvenile champ has ever won the Roses.

8. Hard Spun—Disposing 5 furlongs in 57:60 as he did last week at Churchill is freakish; but was it too much? This is another mystery horse—consistently dominant, but against lesser competition. His romp in The Lane’s End on the Poly at Turfway was convincing, but trainer Larry Jones decided to buck tradition and hold his horse out for the remainder of the prep season. As peculiar as Jones’s tactics may be, he knows his horses, and is very confident in his colt. That alone makes him hard to rule out, but he’ll have to prove that he belongs.

9. Liquidity—This West Coaster trained by Doug O’Neil is often overlooked in favor of his stable mate, Great Hunter. With odds of 30-1, it’s likely that this trend will continue on Saturday. I’m not saying he’s got what it takes to win, but don’t be surprised to see this Tiznow colt in the thick of things. He’s got some good early speed, and if he can keep up with Trueflesburg in a fairly moderate pace, he could hit the board. His works show he’s in peak form and ready to improve off his 4th place in the Santa Anita Derby. Worth a look.

10. Tueflesburg—Was fortunate in the Blue Grass to be unchallenged for the lead, setting a crawling pace and leaving enough in the tank for a strong 4th place. He’ll be gunning for the lead, so a clean break is essential. The added distance might prove too much, and with Curlin, Stormello, Cowtown Cat, and Liquidity likely to challenge for the lead, he’s not going to have the pleasure of a :50 opening quarter. Note: If you want a Rudy story, here it is. He was purchased for a mere $9,000 as a yearling. Nice return.

11. Bwana Bull—Was giving Great Hunter a run for the West Coast title before a disappointing 5th in the Santa Anita Derby. Anything stellar tomorrow would be a surprise, as he looks more overachiever than champion.

12. Nobizlikeshobiz—Trainer Barclay Tagg is the quintessential horseman: peculiar, conservative, methodical, and reserved; the guy also happens to be damn good at what he does, and as we saw with Funny Cide in 2003, puts his horses in winnable situations. The winner of the Wood Memorial, this colt is the definition of consistency, having never fared worse than 3rd in 6 career starts. His tendency to lose focus seemed rectified by the addition of blinkers in the Wood, and he has a pretty good position here to get out and stalk the pace. The only real knock is he hasn’t sown blazing speed en route to his past wins, but his workout show me he’s capable of a spurt. Factor him in.

13. Sam P.—This appears to be a stretch…solid 2 year old campaign, but has yet to find the winner’s circle at 3. It’s difficult to envision a Derby champ with a 2 and 8 lifetime record.

14. Scat Daddy—Florida champ has done everything asked of him this year, winning his two major preps in the sunshine state. Has never run a bad race in his life, and Pletcher has been aiming him here since day 1. Still, Street Sense beat him by some 15 lengths at this track last year. I think he’s definitely got the stuff to win, but he’ll need a perfect trip. I like him if the price is right.

15. Tiago—Much like his half-brother Giacomo, the added distance shouldn’t affect this stretch running longshot winner of the Santa Anita Derby. A hot pace would play right into his hooves, and out of all the stretch bombers, he might have the strongest kick. He’s very green, however, and has never raced outside of SA. If he gets a fast pace, and an alley, it could be déjà vu from 2005. Note: Owned by Jerry Moss, who also owns A&M records, and is named for the son of Brazilian singing sensation (or so I’m told) Sergio Mendes. If you’ll remember, Giacomo was named in honor of Sting’s son. Precious.

16. Circular Quay—A lot to like with this improving colt and Louisiana Derby champ. Ran second to Street Sense on this track in the BC last year. Will be coming off a fairly long layoff, which normally could be a positive, but in a 20 horse field, maybe too much to ask. Not sure if he can rate at 1 ¼.

17. Stormello—Jockey Kent Desormeaux is a Derby vet, so it surprised me when he all but predicted a victory earlier this week. Nice colt, yes, but he getting the lead from the 17 post will require a lot of early horse. I think he has the stamina, as evidenced as his sizzling 2nd place effort and 112 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth attested, but I’m wary of a speed duel. Everything has to go right.

18. Any Given Saturday—Easily the best name, so that’s worth at least a $5 bet. Much like Stormello, his post position doesn’t favor his front running style, and these two could cancel each other out early. Was nosed out by Street Sense in the Tampa Derby, but earned a sexy 114 Beyer fig for his effort. Some might be turned off by his 3rd place in the Wood, but he was wide on both turns and lost some ground. Impeccable bloodline, and winning connections (Pletcher-Gomez has been on fire of late), and barring a torrid opening quarter, could be a serious factor. Very attractive, especially with a good price. This just might be that Saturday.

19. Dominican—This gelding had to have the Blue Grass Stakes to get in, and came through with an impressive late spurt to nip Street Sense at the line. However, the tortoise pace might have been his saving grace, and he’s shown spotty success when not on the cushion. His bullet work at Chruchill shows that he may be peaking at the right time, and could be poised for another dynamite effort. Bejarano is a master, and should never be written off. Can’t ignore his recent form, and his extreme outside post shouldn’t pose too much of a problem. Note: calls Springfield, Ky home, owned by the Hamilton family. He’s named after the Saints, and not the Country, so divine intervention may be in store.

20. Great Hunter—The West Coast champ disappointed in the Blue Grass where he was knocked around in the stretch. The post position looks ominous, but it might not be a problem if he can seamlessly position himself off the pace early, and not get caught too wide in the first turn. If he has sitting with a full tank in the turn for home, look out. By far the best bargain at 15-1, and it might not come down too far if bettors are turned off by the post position. Very capable.

My Picks: 1. Street Sense 2. Curlin 3. Dominican 4. Tiago

Kentucky Derby 133: The Oaks

The Kentucky Oaks, the "Desperate Housewives" of horse races, goes off today with promises of a Queen, rain, rain, and more rain. Yet another element that only compilcates this thing we call handicapping. The favorite, #11 Rags to Riches, has all but dismantled the best 3 year old fillies on the curcuit all season, going a perfect 3 for 3 this year. This Todd Pletchter trained filly will look to stalk the pace, and assuming the mud isn't a problem, could walk home. But don't overlook stable mate #4 Octave. The Unbridled's Song filly came up a nose short in Keeneland's Ashland Stakes, but she's been strong in recent workouts, showing no ill effects from the loss. Don't count out #7 Dreaming of Anna. The BC JF champ has faltered in her only 2 starts of the year, but you have to think she's going to pick up a quality win at some point...recent works show this might be it.

To commemorate this year's Oaks, here's" a post I composed last year detailing my run in with Football legend and double murderer OJ Simpson at last year's Oaks. Enjoy, and check out the site later today as I'll have a breakdown of all 20 horses for tomorrow's Derby.

Mutuel Recap: Dominican Order

As the near freezing April rain tried valiantly to dampen spirits (and buzzes), the driest place at Keeneland yesterday was the track itself. Indeed, the Polytrack held up its end of the bargain, and so too did the world class thoroughbreds who braved the adverse conditions to make for an electrifying day in Lexington.

The highlights:

I had the 4^th race ($66,000 Allowance 4+) circled as soon as the field was announced, for one of my all-time favorites, the resilient Perfect Drift, was on board. The well-traveled and extremely lucrative 8 year old colt hadn’t raced since his 8^th place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Classic back in November, and trainer Murray Johnson obviously wanted to get his horse a solid work before taking on Churchill. Perfect Drift went off as the favorite, but was simply no match for the winner Stream Cat, who left PD in the dust with a very impressive kick on the stretch. Chalk up another dubya for the can’t-miss Frenchy duo of Biancone/Leparoux. The fact that Stream Cat is co-owned by former Dukie Bobby Hurley only compounded my disappointment, but this colt will be tough to beat on the weeds this year.

Race 6, the Jenny Wiley Stakes (G3) was short on numbers (6 entrants) but tall in talent. In a showcase of Breeder’s Cup tested fillies and mares 4+, the Todd Pletcher trained Wait a While figured to be a lock, but it was obvious from the get-go that she simply wasn’t in the mood to run. Women. However, even if she was, I’m not sure she could’ve run down the #4 My Typhoon, who edged Bejarano and Precious Kitten for the win. The Bill Mott trained filly reiterated the notion that the Poly plays truer to grassers than it does mudders, and looks like a serious BC contenda this fall.

The 8^th, The Commonwealth Breeders’ Cup (G2), bore proof that we might’ve taught the Japanese a little too much after WWII. The Far-East bred Silent Name (Sunday Silence) routed an accomplished field of sprinters to get back on the winning path. Trainer Gary Mandella has to feel extremely confident in his colt after yesterday. A solid effort also from the one time all-star turned longshot Lewis Michael who showed some kick in getting up for 2^nd, and an equally disappointing effort out of Baffert’s Midnight Lute, who never threatened en route to a 4^th place finish.

Then, of course, there was the preppiest of preps, the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Featuring the two most impressive 3yo thus far, Street Sense and Great Hunter, many were mistakenly quick to write this off as a duel. 1:51.33 later, as four heads reached the finish line at nearly the same instance, this supposed “match race” had a winner: 10-1 shot Dominican. With Bejarano once again waving his whip as if it were a magic wand, the winner of the Rushaway Stakes clipped even money favorite Street Sense and fellow “afterthought” Zanjero at the line, stamping his ticket to Churchill. The Blue Grass played like a turf race, with lone speeder Truflesberg setting an unfettered snails pace with a 26 + change opening quarter. With a near 2 ½ length lead and plenty left in the tank, I wondered if anyone would catch this resolute son of Johannesburg. Street Sense appeared to be poised for yet another photo-op at the top of the stretch, but was unable to separate from a game Truflesberg and a charging Zanjero. It was obvious that rider Calvin Borel was fighting to keep his horse aligned and focused. Great Hunter suffered through a stretch run from hell, twice getting sandwiched between SS and Tberg, and ultimately having to slam on the breaks before the wire. Bejarano timed his run perfectly, as a stretched out Dominican rallied hard from the outside to nip the others at the wire. Although the connections of Street Sense would’ve happily accepted the $750,000 purse, I’d say they still feel awfully good about their colt heading into May’s first Saturday. I don’t believe he was pushed to his max yesterday, but still showed plenty of mettle. Likewise with Great Hunter. I don’t think he was going to make a winning push, but he certainly could’ve done more with a cleaner trip. Hopefully, he came out sound, and I still think they’re the two to beat (along with Ark. Champ Curlin) at Churchill.

Lessons learned:
No turf? No problem...Street Sense and Great Hunter are still tough, but mortal...Sunday Silence has good seed, in case you forgot...Gomez and Leparoux aside, this is Bejarano's house...Curlin, very fast...April weather, f-you...

Mutuel Musings 4/14

Race 1

I like the #9 Cointreau. He’s been running on the weeds for most of his career, but did romp in a $25,000 claimer on the Keeneland Polytrack last October. He’s been very consistent against similar competition all year, and with Bejarano up, you know he’ll at least get the chance to make a run. Not far behind is the #2 Skippy Due, who has done no worse than 2nd in his last 6 career starts. Locally trained by Phil Sims (no, not the one with the girly sons), he’s very adept on the Poly. Takes a minor step-up in class this trip, but his consistency is too strong to overlook. If you’re looking for a price, take the #3 Sweet Grass Creek.


Race 3

Darley, and their lovable owner Sheikh Mohammed Al Something or Other, couple two talented 3yo’s in #1 Sahara Heat and #1a No Reply. Both horses are impeccably bred and look to be poised to make a move here. You’re getting a 2fer here, so that’s good, but the even money morning line isn’t. #5 Highest Degree finished 7th in the G2 Lane’s End at Turfway his last time out, and this dramatic step down in class might be enough to get him the winner’s circle. Still, at 2-1 I’d be hesitant to play. There’s not much else here, but put the #1 and #2 over a longshot in a tri-box and hope for the best.


Race 4

#5 Pulpit Talk has been wildly inconsistent of late, but his bullet work last week shows he’s ready to improve in his second start off a layoff. I would be remiss if I didn’t make a push for Perfect Drift, who at the age of 8 is the statesmen of this bunch, and is one of my all-time favorites. He’s a no-nonsense colt with enough career earnings to buy his own private horse jet...which is cool in theory, and he’s been running against the best in the world his whole career. Dropping down to an allowance is peculiar (think Celtics Bill Walton), especially one on the grass, but he’s still the one to beat.


Race 6-Jenny Wiley Stakes

Like the theater in Prestonsburg which bears her name, the Jenny Wiley Stakes is playing host to the best fillies and mares in the world. With only six horses to choose from, a good price might be hard to come by. #2 Wait a While trots out of the Pletcher barn with ace jock Garett Gomez at the reigns. She’s one of the fastest mares in the world, and a clean trip would prove disastrous for the others. If the #2 doesn’t happen to feel like running, then another even money lass, #4 My Typhoon will be there to strike. Trained by the King of Turf Bill Mott, she should be ready in her 2nd start from a layoff. #5 Mauralakana is another Biancone/Leparoux combo, with plenty of experience against similar competition. She hasn’t raced since finishing 7th at the Breeder’s Cup last year, and this might be too tough a test coming off that long of a vacation.


Race 8-Commonwealth Breeder's Cup

Like the Jenny Wiley, the Commonwealth Breeder’s Cup will showcase a plethora of Breeder’s Cup quality colts in the Sprint division. I’m going with the #8 Silent Name. This Japanese bred out of Sunday Silence runs like a Toyota--smooth, quiet, and quick. He's been tested against graded competition most of his career, and I think his connections should feel awfully good about this. Look for him to get the lead, and 'Polytrack' his way to a w2w. Standing in his way is the #7 Midnight Lute, outta the Baffert barn, and the #4 Street Light. Longshot: #10 Gin and Sin. Come on, you know you like the name, just bet it.

Race 9-Toyota Bluegrass Stakes

1- Zanjero—a lethal combo of Asmussen and Gomez makes him sexy enough on paper, but this colt can run. He’s won on this course, and the simple fact of the matter is, he’s yet to run his best race. Might this be it?
2- Dominican—Plenty to like here: coming off an impressive triumph in Turfway’s Rushaway Stakes last month on the same surface, earning a 109 Beyer speed figure. But this is a step-up in class, one that may prove to be too much.
3- Love Dubai—If betting on who finished last were playable, then this would be a sure thing. The justification for this horse to be in this race is just not there.
4- Street Sense—I’ve been hailing him as the 3yo champ all year for one simple reason: the reigning 2yo champ is 1 for 1 as a 3yo. While there is very little to not like here, his 4-5 ML kills any excitement. As dominant as this colt has been throughout his career, trainer Carl Nafzger believes he’s yet to run his best race…will be shocked if he doesn’t hit the board.
5- Time Squared—Gets a nod for bloodline (Fusaichi Pegasus) and connections (Biancone), and has some really nice works of late. Taking a monstrous step up in class, and his only previous attempt at a graded stakes yielded an uninspiring 7th place finish. If the pace is hot early on, he could come on late and hit the board, but I’d look elsewhere.
6- Teuflesberg—Has found the board in each of his last 5 races, including 3rd in the Rebel Stakes last month. Prado aboard is a huge plus. Should be unmatched on the lead, and if the fractions are slow, he could just wire this field. Very capable of big things, but this big…not so sure. Is a player, but I would only play him in the exotics if his price is decent.
7- Great Hunter—If there’s anyone who can rival Street Sense in class, it’s this west coaster. This colt can do it all, and looks to be moving into top form at exactly the right time. He’s been facing the best of the best his whole career, and hasn’t faired any worse than 3rd. Put him on top with #4 in any exotics.
If I were a bettin man: tri-box 1, 4, 7