Kentucky Derby: 1-3-to-the-4

Clyde van Dusen…that’s the only horse ever to win the Derby out of the 20 post, and he did it in 1929, and he sounds like he was named after a huge dork. But, undaunted, odds on favorite Big Brown and his trainer Rick Dutrow passed on the 1, 2, 18, and 19 and went for number 20. Now, I can relate with being disoriented at Fourth Street Live (although I’m not proud of it with all the jorts and ankle tats and all), but you would think Dutrow would wear his sober hat until after the draw. Still, makes you wonder if he knows something we all don’t. Guess we’ll wait and see. Twenty horses short on experience but long in stride + 200,000 drunks + Kid Rock= your guess is as good as ours.

Post Position Tidbits: Since 1900, 82% of Derby winners have come from posts 1-10…of all the posts, the 5 and the 1 have gleaned the most winners (12) although the last horse to win from the 1 was Ferdinand (1986)…even though the 20 has only one winner, only 15 horses have ever broken from the 20, so the percentage is a bit misleading.

Derby Prep Tidbits: In the past 20 years, Derby winners have come from Santa Anita (6), Bluegrass (5), Wood (4), Arkansas (3), Illinois (1), and Florida Derby (1)…75% of the Derby winners have been in the exacta in their final prep…only eight horses have won their final prep before the Derby (last one being Barbaro in 2006). --Broseph

(1) Cool Coal Man: another curious victim of the Bluegrass Stakes, which saw this rapidly improving Fountain of Youth winner finish a distant 9th. I would be willing to throw that first foray on the Poly out, except for this ominous post position. Nineteen horses haphazardly breaking from the gate to his right means this pace stalker had better find a spot quick. The connections are there: Zito-Leparoux-Farish, as is the stock: Mineshaft, but there’s nothing that tells me this colt will be the first since ’86 to win from the rail. --Intern

(2) Tale of Ekati: Was able to catch lightning-fast War Pass in the last strides, but War Pass ran stupid fractions, and not sure if they’re going to go out quite that quick on Derby Day. Also, I mentioned shortly after the Wood Memorial that the Ragozin Rating on the race was poor. Whether or not you put any weight into somewhat arbitrary numerical rankings (and by the way in which we Cat fans watched the RPI, you do), the Wood was one of the weakest prep races of the year. Probably ran his best race in New York. --Broseph

(3) Anak Nakal: This will be Evan’s pick because he has a complete man crush on Bejerano, but this horse has little chance. All Zito has been saying all week is, “We need to hope for another Giacomo.” You can say that he’s got something under his sleeve, but it seems to me that he is being sincere. Very little to like at this point. --Broseph

(4) Court Vision: This horse hasn’t won in his last two (with the Fountain of Youth being a bit of a disappointment), but he knows how to hit the board. In his last two preps, he has come rolling in from off the pace to finish a game third. The trip he gets Saturday is worrisome, but I refuse to keep him out of exotics because he will have enough late kick to hit the board again. Even though War Pass is out, there will still be pace (Bob Black Jack, Recapturetheglory) to run at. --Broseph

(5) Eight Belles: When it comes to horses, losing to a girl doesn’t exactly carry the connotation it does for us humans. After all, we’re dealing with horses (and females) here and they lack rationale. But there is also a reason why they run the Oaks and successful exceptions to the rule have been very few and far between. This is a terrific filly who would dominate her “girls” in the Oaks. Although her daddy Unbridled won this race back in ’90, this is not Winning Colors, nor Rags to Riches for that matter. She certainly isn’t doomed, but it would require more than she’s shown thus far. --Intern

(6) Z Fortune: The “other” Asmussen entry ran the best race of his young life last month in the Arkansas Derby…unfortunately, it wasn’t enough to get by Gayego that day, though, considering he broke from the 11th hole and was 4-5 wide the whole way, it may have been just as impressive of a trip. He crawls in his works but he’s a striking colt with some versatility and Albarado gets the mount. Might be ready to uncork his best stuff. --Intern

(7) Big Truck: Bitten by the Bluegrass bug (11th), the Tampa Derby champ would appear primed for a solid rebound effort. At least, that’s what his sizzling workouts suggest. He may not have a Hemi, but he does have Barclay Tagg. Huge stamina questions though as he failed to fire in his two starts at 1 1/8th. Not sure he can rate with this group. --Intern

(8) Visionaire: Don’t put much stock into jockeys, but Lezcano is pretty green. Plus, I never listen to good news prior to the Derby as far as workouts and morning gallops (excepting Colonel John’s monster 5-furlong workout in 57.80), but I always listen to the bad news….and there is some bad news surrounding Visionaire’s pedigree and his last workout. Apparently, he didn’t gallop out like many would have wanted him, and his chances are slim at best. --Broseph

(9) Pyro: not winning the Bluegrass is fine. With a talent like this a trainer really just wants to keep them healthy and fine tuned, but also fresh. It’s why Borel didn’t push the ‘all-out’ button in last year’s Bluegrass, for example. But you certainly hope to do better than 10th. True, some horses just don’t take to the Poly, but it’s pretty rare that a horse flat refuses to run on it. With a less-than-stellar 4f breeze at Churchill last week, you have to wonder if he left it all in Louisiana, he’s hurt, or the connections are simply playing some ball. The Bluegrass was his first career dud, and he’s far too fast and powerful to not be there in the end…unless of course, he’s not fit. But at 6/1 I’ll bet that he is. --Intern

(10) Colonel John: His results speak for themselves: 1st or 2nd in all six lifetime starts, as does his speed: 57 and change over the Churchill dirt last week. He is game, versatile, and very live. He also ships from California, where the beer flows like wine, where beautiful women instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano, and where there is nary a dirt track to be found. Though all 6 starts have been over the cushion, that 5f bullet on Churchill’s dirt suggests the surface will not be an issue. With an impressive win from the clouds in the Santa Anita, the sexy workout, favorable post position, and the infinite amount of John’s at betting booths out there looking for any sign at all (guilty), don’t be surprised if he’s at least a co-favorite come Saturday. Hard to argue. --Intern

(11) Z Humor: Trainer Billy Mott is simply one of the best in the biz, and while his dominance has recently been felt on the turf, he wouldn’t be in here if he didn’t think he could win it (this might sound obligatory, but it most certainly is not). Impeccably bred for this track but he’s yet to win in ’08, so you have to wonder if he has the thirst for the finish line necessary to navigate through 19 other foes. It will be interesting to see where they try to rate him, as he lacks the speed to sit atop the pace, and has had little success from off the pace. --Intern

(12) Smooth Air: had a helluva trip in the Florida Derby, but no one was sniffing Big Brown’s big brown that day. Still rounded that 1 1/8th in a solid 1:48, which is as good as any other horse in the field. Although he’s been on the sprint circuit most of his career, he’s handled the gradually added distance nicely and conditioner Bernie Stutts is a no-nonsense pillar on the Florida circuit. Intrigued. --Intern

(13) Bob Black Jack: Should be your leader at the half-mile pole. Again, if you think this year’s field is a slow one, it wouldn’t kill you to put him in your exotics, but I highly doubt he wires this field. Still, he’s added blinkers, and they may just tell Migliore to let him try and steal it. --Broseph

(14) Monba: Strong closer in the Bluegrass after a dismal Fountain of Youth. Pletcher is going to win the Derby one of these days, and this is his best shot this year. If you include the Cash Call Futurity, he seems to perform much better in Grade I’s than Grade II’s, so maybe he needs the competition around him to get the best from him. Also, doesn’t have a long way to ship from Lexington. --Broseph

(15) Adriano: if the son of A.P. Indy out of a Mr. Prospector mare weren’t enough to command respect, Edgar Prado shuns Tale of Ekati for the keys to this regal Lanes End champ. Like Hard Spun a year ago, the connections decided to keep their colt on the shelf after conquering the Turfway Polytrack in March. Certainly a long layoff, but by no means a disqualifier. The only real concern I see is the obvious: 1 career race on dirt, 9th place (Fountain of Youth). His trainer thinks he’s the one to beat, and although the biased boastfulness should often be ignored, he appears to be primed for his best effort to date…if he handles the track…and 19 rivals. --Intern

(16) Denis of Cork: with only 4 lifetime starts notched into his saddle, this Florida bred (booo) is the obligatory mystery horse capable of sewing his way to stardom, or just as likely to be panic stricken by the buzz of 200k people and dense traffic. His first career start, and the only as a 2 year old, came over the Churchill track, and his workouts there have been impressive. Fortunate his hugely disappointing 5th in the Illinois Derby didn’t relegate him to the undercard, as his first try at 1 1/8th fell flat. But I like this colt as he reminds me a bit of Afleet Alex. But the Churchill track on the first Saturday in May is not the ideal time and place to make your 5th career start. --Intern

(17) Cowboy Cal: Plenty of readers here had him tagged as the winner of the Bluegrass, and he nearly delivered. Still, his best races seem to be run on turf, and the softer Polytrack lends much of an edge to grass runners. Much like Tale of Ekati, he left his best in his last race. Also, he will not be able to get out front in slow fractions and try to steal the race Saturday, like he almost did in Lexington. --Broseph

(18) Recapturetheglory: I have seen this horse picked anywhere from fifth to not on the board, but I can’t help but put him in the exotics because he could be on the front near the end. Much like Hard Spun and Lion Heart, he could round out a nice exacta if you have the faith. War Emblem was able to do it, and all I’ve been hearing this year is how “slow” the field is…so, why the hell not? --Broseph

(19) Gayego: unlike some, I was impressed by his victory in the Arkansas Derby. He may not have buried a stacked field, but he was pressed the whole way and held off a game Z Fortune in the stretch. I like his power and consistency, but this is a gnarly post position, especially for speed. Jockey Mike Smith will do what he can to get this colt comfortably near the front, but for a lightly raced 3 year old, you can’t expect much from the extreme outside. --Intern

(20) Big Brown: This horse's Florida Derby was awesome for many reasons: overcoming his post (12), setting fast fractions, and winning by daylight. Barbaro destroyed the myth that a lightly-raced horse can't win the Derby, and Big Brown took to the track well yesterday morning. Jill Byrne said his gallop was impressive because of the ground he can cover with each stride. Also, a wet track only helps this guy if he can stay on or near the lead. Shaky favorite, and you have to wonder about the post decision. --Broseph

Broseph’s Picks

1. Big Brown: move over Clyde van Dusen

2. Monba: like Andre Woodson, left Lex Vegas a winner

3. Court Vision: he likes third place…that’s cool with me

4. Recapturetheglory: can’t shake the War Emblem vibe

5. Pyro: maybe he just didn’t like the Polytrack

Intern's Picks

1. Colonel John: the outside speed could set up nicely for him

2. Adriano: in Edgar Prado I trust

3. Pyro: if he's right, he's capable going away

4. Big Brown: silly power and speed, silly post position

5. Smooth Air: saving his best?

Wrong day, right horse?

As this YouTube treasure attests, the mysterious Curlin is not the only animal reeling in the reality of that whole "losing to a girl" thing. Sure, his stablemates gave him hell for a while, but they know...they know they couldn't run the Rags down, either. Well, if Curlin thinks like Paul Simon, and I'd say that's a safe bet, he's eager for his "photo opportunity" and a "shot at redemption."

While The Haskell is but one out of a hefty bundle of lucrative Stakes races this time of year, there's a certain mystique implanted in its story, and is truly one of the top two or three races every summer. Glancing over the names of the past winners is like taking a roll call in Cooperstown: Forty Niner, Holy Bull, Skip Away, Point Given, just to name a few of the legends to conquer these 10 furlongs.

There's really no reason to think Curlin can't add his African-American name to that list today. His freak-like, allbeit small resume pre-Triple Crown crafted as many skeptics as believers, but his grit and domineering leg put everyone on board in the Preakness, and his near miss to a fresh lass at Belmont only solidified his talent. I'm not liberal with my "superhorse" tags, but Curlin certainly has the ingredients to take it to the next level. That being said, I'm looking to beat him today, and I'm going with my crush, AnyGivenSaturday. Maybe it's the first-time-at-the-races-pick-the-coolest-name in me, but I really think his ability is on par with Curlin and Street Sense. The Distored Humor colt is not only a physical monster, he's proven. This isn't some lightly challenge, mystery West Coaster here, AGS has raced against the best each time out, and that four-length stroll over NobizLikeShobiz in the Dwyer tells me this horse is live and ready. I'll be rooting for the hard-lucked Hard Spun (and I feel he'll be around 4-1 after Curlin and AGS), and the very fast and very green Cable Boy, but only to complete my trifecta.

Lawyer Ron raises the "bar", and oh yeah, Street Sense

Whomever is fortunate enough to purchase a Lawyer Ron foal in a couple of years pretty much has the 'name game' wrapped up. Who didn't love Kurt Russel and Martin Short's slice of cinema magestry, "Captain Ron"? The film may have been snubbed at the Oscar's, but let's see the man try and stop Captain Ron from the Triple Crown. The Lawyer's scintilating, record-breaking performance in the Whitney yesterday solidified my status as a genius, and fueled my disquiet over not including Ginger Punch in the Pick 4. Just when you thought the Classic would be a duel between the gifted three-year-olds, Lawyer Ron's masterdom over as classy a field as you'll see tells us otherwise. With Jambalaya in "reaux" of the Turf division mix, The Lawyer becomes Langfuhr's second legitimate BC threat. And a huge break for Pletcher, who needed another Stakes win in the worst way.


The party continues at the Spa today, with Derby winner/thoroughbred du' jour Street Sense making his return in the GII Jim Dandy. The Street's farewell tour was cemented when 'Chic' Mohammad reached into his bottomless pocket and pulled out the breeding rights, so we can only hope he'll stay sound through the Cup. Only 5 will challenge the phenom today, as it's no secret that a fresh and willing Street Sense cannot be sniffed by fellow three-year-olds (2-5 ML could've told you that). The steady CP West lacks flash...and wins, but could push the Street enough that he has to dig, especially if it's sloppy. I also really like Sightseeing at 10-1. After winning the Peter Pan in May, he was a distant 3rd in the Dwyer earlier this month...but a 3rd to AnyGivenSaturday and NobizLikeShobiz isn't exactly a dud. Very curious to see how Tiz Wonderful handles his first action since late last year. If you'll remember, this colt was sensational as a 2-year-old, winning all three of his starts that year in emphatic fashion, all triple-digit Beyer's. Coming off a tendon injury, his workouts have been, ehh, ok, so I'll have to wait one before I donate to the cause.

Are you watching yet?

I know I'm not exactly going out on a limb with this admission (God save me if I stink of Dick Vitale: "I really feel, that when it's all said and done, North Carolina will be good."), but I'm genueinely excited about today's [trumpets]Breeder's Cup Challenge at the Spa. There will always be the cartel of staunch purists who shudder at the thought of commercially appealing highjinx as they do Polytrack, and simply refuse to accept changes, er, improvements. But we have to be real, everybody wins when the numbers are up. The sport, much like tennis, desperately needed a way to make Average Joe care; care so much that he dips into his son's college fund to cover his superfecta combos. The 25 Graded Stakes comprising this here extravaganza make for some damn good rubbin', and hopefully, with the aid of some cute storylines and the perpetual decay of summertime sports in America, this clever "packaging" of a BC Series will bring back the casual fan. Sometimes you have to shake hands with the devil, and if ESPN wants to catapult this sport back into the mainstream, then I don't have a problem with it.

Diana S (F&M Turf)
I have special spot for the #6 My Typhoon, as I remember watching her pass through the sale and knew she'd be special. Sure enough, she comes in today seemingly at the summit, and lest we forget the King o' Turf himself, Sir Bill Mott at the helm. My only fear is a speed duel with Biancone's rabbit, #4 Snake Bit...I mean, Countess Scala, and the classy #3 Mauralakana, in which case the enormously gifted Irish-bred #5 Makederah from the "heavy"-hitting McLaughlin barn, could prove the paper to be correct. Still, Mott's filly is tested, quick, and peaking, so I'll give her the nod.

Vanderbilt S (Sprint)
Without question, the runner-up for best race on the card. Myriad of talent in here headed by #5 Diabolical. Very consistent, and unraced since winning the Md. Sprint H on Preakness Day. He's hit triple digit Beyers in his last two starts, and has a couple recent bullets to show he's still primed. As much as I fien for a price, I don't see any reason why he'd lay a dud. Although, I like the #2 Cougar Cat to even the score with #7 Benny the Bull, and he's a ripe 5-1 ML, but no, I'm sticking with the 5...2...5.

Go for Wand S (Distaff)
A modest field of 6, all with a shot. #5 Ginger Punch has been strong all year, most recently romping the GII First Flight S at Belmont earlier in the month. Perhaps even more impressive, was her strong runner-up to Take D'Tour in the Phipps in June. I love Awesome Again, and in case you haven't noticed, this Frankel/Bejarano marriage is quite sweet indeed. But can she go 1 1/8 and 2 turns with this bunch? I'm looking for a price here, and I'm not gonna get it from Punch, #2 Ermine, or #4 Teammate. I'm looking at the rail, and the longshot #1 Soul Search. Trainer Neil Howard always seems to pick his spots nicely, and even though this mare is winless in her last handfull, she's been steady among solid competition. Assuming a clean, ground saving trip, and some hot early cooking, I expect her to show some kick in the stretch, and hopefully "Red Giant" this crew.

Whitney H (Classic)
Behold, the sweet fruits of "The Challenge." The race of the year thus far in my opinion, today's starting gate could very well mirror that of the actual Classic. For the most ardent of racing fans, standing by the paddock will be like walking onto the set of Ocean's 13 (what? You don't think Pletcher could make a runner out of Elliot Gould?). You have your Clooney in the scintilating #7 Magna Graduate. Not only did he save his best stuff for his middle-racing-age-years, but his back-to-back 106 Beyer's against stout competition, suggest he's poised for steady stream of blockbusters. And we all know how much Clooney loves to pretend he was, indeed, a Magna Graduate, even though I don't even think that's even in the lexicon of Northern Kentucky University. #2 Papi Chullo, a late-blooming Cadillac, was the equivalent of a quarterback getting drafted first by an awful team and being shoved under center from day 1. Or, the way Don Cheadle had to do "Meteor Man" before he got "Hotel Rwanda." He landed in Gary Contessa's barn early this year, and culminated his resurgence with a sublime (110 Beyer) effort in the Birdstone S on Belmont Day against a solid field. IEAH just bought-in for a slice, and they certainly don't miss much. #1 Flashy Bull was more than stellar in the Stephen Foster, running down Magna Graduate with relative ease, en route to his 4th win in a row. Those Holy Bull's are runners now; consistent and handsome, like a Matt Damon. There's nothing to suggest he won't be there at the end, ah, except for that post position. His freshness concerns me as well. At the age of 5 and out with a typically career-ending injury, to see #3 Brass Hat back among the elite is miraculous. Just when you though his "Scarface" days had been replaced by "Two for the Money" antics, he comes out and sets a track record in a solid allowance a few weeks back at Churchill. But I can't see him being ready for this group quite yet. I'm going with #11 Lawyer Ron, and his Pitt-like sex-appeal. Let's not forget how dominant this colt was as a 3-year-old, before a nightmare trip in the Derby pretty much took it out of him for the rest of the year. Hey, "Babel" sucked, but we learn to forgive. He's since moved onto the Midas straw of the Pletcher barn, and hasn't missed the money yet in 07. So he's missed for all of it of late, but looks sharper each time out, and I expect to see even more improvement today. I like his tactical speed, his recent works, and that juicy 6-1 ML. Ok, I love it. There, I said it.

Ticket:
7: 6
8: 5
9: 1,4
10: 11

Yes, bears do

Occasionally, a question will be thrown your direction, the content of which is so self-evident, that it warrants the counter-query we all learned in grade school: "Does a bear shit in the woods?" Such was the case a couple of months back while taking in an afternoon of 10 cent returns and 5 dollar beers with a few buddies at Six Flags over Churchill Downs. After watching a Patrick Biancone trained-Coolmore owned-Leparoux steered-filly scorch the track in a half of a cigarette (Biancone time), my friend asked me if I thought Biancone was, as he so elequently stated, "juicin' these girls?" Bears moving bows in their natural habitat is not my favorite quip, as its legendary status has lead to gross overuse But Biancone's reputation for dirty tactics was the worst kept secret in the Bluegrass and beyond. So when Biancone's garrison of barns were siezed by the KHRA last week at Keeneland, the only person surprised was probably Biancone himself, that it took this long.

Nevertheless, kudos to the KHRA and Keeneland for taking a stand. The fact that a singular governing body still eludes thoroughbred racing in these United States is a separate rant unto itself, but the porousness of the current set-up is rife with loopholing horsemen, giggling in line at the bank with but a small welt on the wrist. My heart bleeds for Steve Asmussen when he gets a $2,500 fine for positive tests after his stable has made off with millions in winnings. Not to single out The Frenchy and The Ass Man (sitcom?), but one only had to look at Biancone's lengthy track record. Run out of Eurpoe, banned in Hong Kong, and now a major hiccup in Kentucky. The word from the Keeneland backside is that there's more than enough evidence to expel Biancone from the Commonwealth, which is a serious death blow to anyone in this business. Now it's up to the KHRA to pull the trigger and send a message to the super-stables that you'd better leave your snake venom on the reservation, the cocaine in the limo, the EPO in the...well, you get the idea.

Just look around. Turn on the TV, browse the web. Cheating is in. From Armstrong, to Landis, Sosa to Bonds, the media is feeding us truck loads of accusations and consumers are eating it up and asking for seconds. If the smoke ever settles around baseball I fear that the cannons will be pointed toward horse racing, an onslaught I doubt the sport's fragile legs withstand. Horsemen and gamblers aside, racing fans are turned on to the purity of the sport; the unfettered grace of a horse as it gives its all doing the only thing it knows how. When you jeopardize integrity, you stand to lose it all. Hopefully, the only losers in all of this will be the ones winning the wrong way.

We're waiting....

Another year, another foiled Triple Crown. With the talent that has conquered the Derby over the years, I'm beginning to think Affirmed's successful Trinity in '78 is safe for the long haul. Not to ignore the splendor of animals like Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and Thunder Gulch, but just in the past few years the sweet taste of Triple Crown has been crudely purged from our mouths--as it was on Saturday with Curlin's remarkable stride past Street Sense.

First, it was the dangerously athletic and substantially lucrative Fusaichi Pegasus, who came into the Triple Crown in 2000 with more hype than a new Star Wars installment. After gassing the Derby field he came up short in the Preakness to a fresh Red Bullet. War Emblem? Close, but no cigar...or in his case, no flesh cigar. Not many people gave the sack-less Funny Cide much of a chance in '03, but perhaps a rough rail trip through the ankle deep mud at Belmont is all that hindered history that year...well, that and the fact that Empire Maker was a beast when he wanted to be. Smarty Jones? Oh, what should have been. I will continue to tell myself that Barbaro had the necessary ingredients to sweep the Crown, but I guess Billy Joel was right.

Fu-Peg. Smarty Jones. Barbaro. Street Sense. Hell, even Afleet Alex and Curlin. All superstars, and yet we still wait. There are those who say that the industry needs another TC champion. I believe those cries are mostly from the outside looking in, for the annual anticipation of another Affirmed-like feat keeps the masses tuning in each year. And then there's the gambling, which isn't going anywhere, and if certain Gubernatorial elections play out as expected, will only be expanding. No, I believe horse racing is good to go for the forseeable future, although I do worry about the drugs. Let's face it, trainers and owners will continue to cheat, or loophole, however you choose to paint it, and as soon as the media is through with baseball and Lance Armstrong,I fear they may leech onto horse racing "like flies on a ribroast."

Rest easy Affirmed. (pours his Natty light to the ground)

Pre Preakness Preview

Winning Derby jockey Calvin Borel traded rubbing hooves for rubbing elbows at the White House, trainer Carl Nafzger thrusted back into the spotlight, and Street Sense became a star. Indeed, the Kentucky Derby, sorry, the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Foods constructs legends, but the Preakness legitimizes them. Each year, the winner on the first Saturday in May trots into Maryland with the hope of becoming the first Triple Crown Champion since Affirmed in '78, and trade their blanket of roses for a smattering of Black Eyed Susans (no, not Dennis Rodman's current girlfriend, the flower). Will we have another Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown, well, at stake? Let's just hope it goes better than last year.


1. Mint Slewlep—Cute name, wrong event. This colt is this year’s local flavor, but there’s not much here to suggest he can run with this class. He failed to hit the board in his only two previous graded stakes races, and the rail will not do him any favors. Good luck.

2. Xchanger—Impressive win in a stakes at Pimlico in April, this colt appears to be on the upswing. And, he’s the only horse in the field to run on this track, which is nice. The added distance shouldn’t be a problem, but the added talent should. He’ll have to prove he belongs with this group before I waste a Shrute-Buck on him.

3. Circular Quay—It’s obvious that trainer Todd Pletcher is getting sick of this “never won a Triple Crown race” tag, as this colt was entered at the 11th hour. Only in the Derby can a 6th place finish be considered good, but thinking about the all-stars that finished behind him, it is. Throw in the fact that he ran the Derby off an 8 week layoff after winning the Louisiana Derby in March, and that 6th place gets even sexier. As one of the lone closers in the field a grueling pace would be ideal. A definite play at the current odds.

4. Curlin—Making only his 5th career start, Curlin remains somewhat of an uncertainty. His distant 3rd place finish after a rough trip in the Derby prompted many to jump off the bandwagon, but this is not a 20 horse field. He’s still an extremely powerful colt with plenty of speed, and I don’t know how you can leave him off a trifecta ticket. His meager experience is glaring, but so are his results.

5. King of the Roxy—After getting clipped at the wire by Tiago in the Santa Anita Derby, Pletcher immediately pointed this colt for Pimlico. With a month to train for a specific race, there’s really no excuse for him to throw in a dud. He proved he was more than a sprinter at Santa Anita, and he gets the red hot Garrett Gomez in the reigns. More amazing: this colt was purchased for a mere $8,000 as a yearling; a Kia that runs like a Jaguar, not bad.

6. Flying First Class—If there’s one certainty in this race, it’s that this guy will be the pace setter. How fast he’s forced to go remains to be seen. Sometimes, a rabbit is allotted the lead to the extent that he’s able to put it in cruise. If that’s the case, he could be a factor, but there’s just too much other speed in here to think he’ll have much left in the stretch. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is a Preakness master, and his romp in the Derby Trial earlier this month suggests he can go the distance, but is he fresh enough to do it again? Worth a look, but would be a surprise.

7. Hard Spun—Ran his eyeballs out in nearly wiring the Derby field, and with Flying First Class to his inside, should be able to slide right in underneath him. Detractors will say he ran too fast in the Derby to be fresh two weeks later, but this is a classy colt with plenty of leg. With a jockey (Pino) who knows this course as well as Calvin Borel knows Churchill, it’s hard to envision him not being there at the end. Might be exhausted, but might be ready to explode too.

8. Street Sense—Not much needs to be said here: he was the best as a 2yo, and continues to be at 3. His Derby effort was nothing short of astounding, closing from 19th place at the ¼ pole to rout his rivals, maybe breaking a sweat along the way. His recent work late last week shows he’s still in top form, and maybe, just maybe, has room to improve. Scary thought. The hope of the industry rests on his shoulders, and the best part about it, he has no idea.

9. CP West—Lightly raced, but very consistent…and expensive ($425,000 as a yearling). Trainer Nick Zito didn’t come here just for the crab cakes and pageantry, and his robust odds are enticing. He’s 0-2 as a 3 year old, but I think he’s yet to show his best stuff, and Edgar Prado aboard is a plus. If you’re looking for a price to bust up the chalk, this might be it.

My Picks:
1. Street Sense
2. Curlin
3. Hard Spun
4. CP West