Mutuel Recap: Dominican Order

As the near freezing April rain tried valiantly to dampen spirits (and buzzes), the driest place at Keeneland yesterday was the track itself. Indeed, the Polytrack held up its end of the bargain, and so too did the world class thoroughbreds who braved the adverse conditions to make for an electrifying day in Lexington.

The highlights:

I had the 4^th race ($66,000 Allowance 4+) circled as soon as the field was announced, for one of my all-time favorites, the resilient Perfect Drift, was on board. The well-traveled and extremely lucrative 8 year old colt hadn’t raced since his 8^th place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Classic back in November, and trainer Murray Johnson obviously wanted to get his horse a solid work before taking on Churchill. Perfect Drift went off as the favorite, but was simply no match for the winner Stream Cat, who left PD in the dust with a very impressive kick on the stretch. Chalk up another dubya for the can’t-miss Frenchy duo of Biancone/Leparoux. The fact that Stream Cat is co-owned by former Dukie Bobby Hurley only compounded my disappointment, but this colt will be tough to beat on the weeds this year.

Race 6, the Jenny Wiley Stakes (G3) was short on numbers (6 entrants) but tall in talent. In a showcase of Breeder’s Cup tested fillies and mares 4+, the Todd Pletcher trained Wait a While figured to be a lock, but it was obvious from the get-go that she simply wasn’t in the mood to run. Women. However, even if she was, I’m not sure she could’ve run down the #4 My Typhoon, who edged Bejarano and Precious Kitten for the win. The Bill Mott trained filly reiterated the notion that the Poly plays truer to grassers than it does mudders, and looks like a serious BC contenda this fall.

The 8^th, The Commonwealth Breeders’ Cup (G2), bore proof that we might’ve taught the Japanese a little too much after WWII. The Far-East bred Silent Name (Sunday Silence) routed an accomplished field of sprinters to get back on the winning path. Trainer Gary Mandella has to feel extremely confident in his colt after yesterday. A solid effort also from the one time all-star turned longshot Lewis Michael who showed some kick in getting up for 2^nd, and an equally disappointing effort out of Baffert’s Midnight Lute, who never threatened en route to a 4^th place finish.

Then, of course, there was the preppiest of preps, the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Featuring the two most impressive 3yo thus far, Street Sense and Great Hunter, many were mistakenly quick to write this off as a duel. 1:51.33 later, as four heads reached the finish line at nearly the same instance, this supposed “match race” had a winner: 10-1 shot Dominican. With Bejarano once again waving his whip as if it were a magic wand, the winner of the Rushaway Stakes clipped even money favorite Street Sense and fellow “afterthought” Zanjero at the line, stamping his ticket to Churchill. The Blue Grass played like a turf race, with lone speeder Truflesberg setting an unfettered snails pace with a 26 + change opening quarter. With a near 2 ½ length lead and plenty left in the tank, I wondered if anyone would catch this resolute son of Johannesburg. Street Sense appeared to be poised for yet another photo-op at the top of the stretch, but was unable to separate from a game Truflesberg and a charging Zanjero. It was obvious that rider Calvin Borel was fighting to keep his horse aligned and focused. Great Hunter suffered through a stretch run from hell, twice getting sandwiched between SS and Tberg, and ultimately having to slam on the breaks before the wire. Bejarano timed his run perfectly, as a stretched out Dominican rallied hard from the outside to nip the others at the wire. Although the connections of Street Sense would’ve happily accepted the $750,000 purse, I’d say they still feel awfully good about their colt heading into May’s first Saturday. I don’t believe he was pushed to his max yesterday, but still showed plenty of mettle. Likewise with Great Hunter. I don’t think he was going to make a winning push, but he certainly could’ve done more with a cleaner trip. Hopefully, he came out sound, and I still think they’re the two to beat (along with Ark. Champ Curlin) at Churchill.

Lessons learned:
No turf? No problem...Street Sense and Great Hunter are still tough, but mortal...Sunday Silence has good seed, in case you forgot...Gomez and Leparoux aside, this is Bejarano's house...Curlin, very fast...April weather, f-you...

Mutuel Musings 4/14

Race 1

I like the #9 Cointreau. He’s been running on the weeds for most of his career, but did romp in a $25,000 claimer on the Keeneland Polytrack last October. He’s been very consistent against similar competition all year, and with Bejarano up, you know he’ll at least get the chance to make a run. Not far behind is the #2 Skippy Due, who has done no worse than 2nd in his last 6 career starts. Locally trained by Phil Sims (no, not the one with the girly sons), he’s very adept on the Poly. Takes a minor step-up in class this trip, but his consistency is too strong to overlook. If you’re looking for a price, take the #3 Sweet Grass Creek.


Race 3

Darley, and their lovable owner Sheikh Mohammed Al Something or Other, couple two talented 3yo’s in #1 Sahara Heat and #1a No Reply. Both horses are impeccably bred and look to be poised to make a move here. You’re getting a 2fer here, so that’s good, but the even money morning line isn’t. #5 Highest Degree finished 7th in the G2 Lane’s End at Turfway his last time out, and this dramatic step down in class might be enough to get him the winner’s circle. Still, at 2-1 I’d be hesitant to play. There’s not much else here, but put the #1 and #2 over a longshot in a tri-box and hope for the best.


Race 4

#5 Pulpit Talk has been wildly inconsistent of late, but his bullet work last week shows he’s ready to improve in his second start off a layoff. I would be remiss if I didn’t make a push for Perfect Drift, who at the age of 8 is the statesmen of this bunch, and is one of my all-time favorites. He’s a no-nonsense colt with enough career earnings to buy his own private horse jet...which is cool in theory, and he’s been running against the best in the world his whole career. Dropping down to an allowance is peculiar (think Celtics Bill Walton), especially one on the grass, but he’s still the one to beat.


Race 6-Jenny Wiley Stakes

Like the theater in Prestonsburg which bears her name, the Jenny Wiley Stakes is playing host to the best fillies and mares in the world. With only six horses to choose from, a good price might be hard to come by. #2 Wait a While trots out of the Pletcher barn with ace jock Garett Gomez at the reigns. She’s one of the fastest mares in the world, and a clean trip would prove disastrous for the others. If the #2 doesn’t happen to feel like running, then another even money lass, #4 My Typhoon will be there to strike. Trained by the King of Turf Bill Mott, she should be ready in her 2nd start from a layoff. #5 Mauralakana is another Biancone/Leparoux combo, with plenty of experience against similar competition. She hasn’t raced since finishing 7th at the Breeder’s Cup last year, and this might be too tough a test coming off that long of a vacation.


Race 8-Commonwealth Breeder's Cup

Like the Jenny Wiley, the Commonwealth Breeder’s Cup will showcase a plethora of Breeder’s Cup quality colts in the Sprint division. I’m going with the #8 Silent Name. This Japanese bred out of Sunday Silence runs like a Toyota--smooth, quiet, and quick. He's been tested against graded competition most of his career, and I think his connections should feel awfully good about this. Look for him to get the lead, and 'Polytrack' his way to a w2w. Standing in his way is the #7 Midnight Lute, outta the Baffert barn, and the #4 Street Light. Longshot: #10 Gin and Sin. Come on, you know you like the name, just bet it.

Race 9-Toyota Bluegrass Stakes

1- Zanjero—a lethal combo of Asmussen and Gomez makes him sexy enough on paper, but this colt can run. He’s won on this course, and the simple fact of the matter is, he’s yet to run his best race. Might this be it?
2- Dominican—Plenty to like here: coming off an impressive triumph in Turfway’s Rushaway Stakes last month on the same surface, earning a 109 Beyer speed figure. But this is a step-up in class, one that may prove to be too much.
3- Love Dubai—If betting on who finished last were playable, then this would be a sure thing. The justification for this horse to be in this race is just not there.
4- Street Sense—I’ve been hailing him as the 3yo champ all year for one simple reason: the reigning 2yo champ is 1 for 1 as a 3yo. While there is very little to not like here, his 4-5 ML kills any excitement. As dominant as this colt has been throughout his career, trainer Carl Nafzger believes he’s yet to run his best race…will be shocked if he doesn’t hit the board.
5- Time Squared—Gets a nod for bloodline (Fusaichi Pegasus) and connections (Biancone), and has some really nice works of late. Taking a monstrous step up in class, and his only previous attempt at a graded stakes yielded an uninspiring 7th place finish. If the pace is hot early on, he could come on late and hit the board, but I’d look elsewhere.
6- Teuflesberg—Has found the board in each of his last 5 races, including 3rd in the Rebel Stakes last month. Prado aboard is a huge plus. Should be unmatched on the lead, and if the fractions are slow, he could just wire this field. Very capable of big things, but this big…not so sure. Is a player, but I would only play him in the exotics if his price is decent.
7- Great Hunter—If there’s anyone who can rival Street Sense in class, it’s this west coaster. This colt can do it all, and looks to be moving into top form at exactly the right time. He’s been facing the best of the best his whole career, and hasn’t faired any worse than 3rd. Put him on top with #4 in any exotics.
If I were a bettin man: tri-box 1, 4, 7