Wrong day, right horse?

As this YouTube treasure attests, the mysterious Curlin is not the only animal reeling in the reality of that whole "losing to a girl" thing. Sure, his stablemates gave him hell for a while, but they know...they know they couldn't run the Rags down, either. Well, if Curlin thinks like Paul Simon, and I'd say that's a safe bet, he's eager for his "photo opportunity" and a "shot at redemption."

While The Haskell is but one out of a hefty bundle of lucrative Stakes races this time of year, there's a certain mystique implanted in its story, and is truly one of the top two or three races every summer. Glancing over the names of the past winners is like taking a roll call in Cooperstown: Forty Niner, Holy Bull, Skip Away, Point Given, just to name a few of the legends to conquer these 10 furlongs.

There's really no reason to think Curlin can't add his African-American name to that list today. His freak-like, allbeit small resume pre-Triple Crown crafted as many skeptics as believers, but his grit and domineering leg put everyone on board in the Preakness, and his near miss to a fresh lass at Belmont only solidified his talent. I'm not liberal with my "superhorse" tags, but Curlin certainly has the ingredients to take it to the next level. That being said, I'm looking to beat him today, and I'm going with my crush, AnyGivenSaturday. Maybe it's the first-time-at-the-races-pick-the-coolest-name in me, but I really think his ability is on par with Curlin and Street Sense. The Distored Humor colt is not only a physical monster, he's proven. This isn't some lightly challenge, mystery West Coaster here, AGS has raced against the best each time out, and that four-length stroll over NobizLikeShobiz in the Dwyer tells me this horse is live and ready. I'll be rooting for the hard-lucked Hard Spun (and I feel he'll be around 4-1 after Curlin and AGS), and the very fast and very green Cable Boy, but only to complete my trifecta.

Lawyer Ron raises the "bar", and oh yeah, Street Sense

Whomever is fortunate enough to purchase a Lawyer Ron foal in a couple of years pretty much has the 'name game' wrapped up. Who didn't love Kurt Russel and Martin Short's slice of cinema magestry, "Captain Ron"? The film may have been snubbed at the Oscar's, but let's see the man try and stop Captain Ron from the Triple Crown. The Lawyer's scintilating, record-breaking performance in the Whitney yesterday solidified my status as a genius, and fueled my disquiet over not including Ginger Punch in the Pick 4. Just when you thought the Classic would be a duel between the gifted three-year-olds, Lawyer Ron's masterdom over as classy a field as you'll see tells us otherwise. With Jambalaya in "reaux" of the Turf division mix, The Lawyer becomes Langfuhr's second legitimate BC threat. And a huge break for Pletcher, who needed another Stakes win in the worst way.


The party continues at the Spa today, with Derby winner/thoroughbred du' jour Street Sense making his return in the GII Jim Dandy. The Street's farewell tour was cemented when 'Chic' Mohammad reached into his bottomless pocket and pulled out the breeding rights, so we can only hope he'll stay sound through the Cup. Only 5 will challenge the phenom today, as it's no secret that a fresh and willing Street Sense cannot be sniffed by fellow three-year-olds (2-5 ML could've told you that). The steady CP West lacks flash...and wins, but could push the Street enough that he has to dig, especially if it's sloppy. I also really like Sightseeing at 10-1. After winning the Peter Pan in May, he was a distant 3rd in the Dwyer earlier this month...but a 3rd to AnyGivenSaturday and NobizLikeShobiz isn't exactly a dud. Very curious to see how Tiz Wonderful handles his first action since late last year. If you'll remember, this colt was sensational as a 2-year-old, winning all three of his starts that year in emphatic fashion, all triple-digit Beyer's. Coming off a tendon injury, his workouts have been, ehh, ok, so I'll have to wait one before I donate to the cause.

Are you watching yet?

I know I'm not exactly going out on a limb with this admission (God save me if I stink of Dick Vitale: "I really feel, that when it's all said and done, North Carolina will be good."), but I'm genueinely excited about today's [trumpets]Breeder's Cup Challenge at the Spa. There will always be the cartel of staunch purists who shudder at the thought of commercially appealing highjinx as they do Polytrack, and simply refuse to accept changes, er, improvements. But we have to be real, everybody wins when the numbers are up. The sport, much like tennis, desperately needed a way to make Average Joe care; care so much that he dips into his son's college fund to cover his superfecta combos. The 25 Graded Stakes comprising this here extravaganza make for some damn good rubbin', and hopefully, with the aid of some cute storylines and the perpetual decay of summertime sports in America, this clever "packaging" of a BC Series will bring back the casual fan. Sometimes you have to shake hands with the devil, and if ESPN wants to catapult this sport back into the mainstream, then I don't have a problem with it.

Diana S (F&M Turf)
I have special spot for the #6 My Typhoon, as I remember watching her pass through the sale and knew she'd be special. Sure enough, she comes in today seemingly at the summit, and lest we forget the King o' Turf himself, Sir Bill Mott at the helm. My only fear is a speed duel with Biancone's rabbit, #4 Snake Bit...I mean, Countess Scala, and the classy #3 Mauralakana, in which case the enormously gifted Irish-bred #5 Makederah from the "heavy"-hitting McLaughlin barn, could prove the paper to be correct. Still, Mott's filly is tested, quick, and peaking, so I'll give her the nod.

Vanderbilt S (Sprint)
Without question, the runner-up for best race on the card. Myriad of talent in here headed by #5 Diabolical. Very consistent, and unraced since winning the Md. Sprint H on Preakness Day. He's hit triple digit Beyers in his last two starts, and has a couple recent bullets to show he's still primed. As much as I fien for a price, I don't see any reason why he'd lay a dud. Although, I like the #2 Cougar Cat to even the score with #7 Benny the Bull, and he's a ripe 5-1 ML, but no, I'm sticking with the 5...2...5.

Go for Wand S (Distaff)
A modest field of 6, all with a shot. #5 Ginger Punch has been strong all year, most recently romping the GII First Flight S at Belmont earlier in the month. Perhaps even more impressive, was her strong runner-up to Take D'Tour in the Phipps in June. I love Awesome Again, and in case you haven't noticed, this Frankel/Bejarano marriage is quite sweet indeed. But can she go 1 1/8 and 2 turns with this bunch? I'm looking for a price here, and I'm not gonna get it from Punch, #2 Ermine, or #4 Teammate. I'm looking at the rail, and the longshot #1 Soul Search. Trainer Neil Howard always seems to pick his spots nicely, and even though this mare is winless in her last handfull, she's been steady among solid competition. Assuming a clean, ground saving trip, and some hot early cooking, I expect her to show some kick in the stretch, and hopefully "Red Giant" this crew.

Whitney H (Classic)
Behold, the sweet fruits of "The Challenge." The race of the year thus far in my opinion, today's starting gate could very well mirror that of the actual Classic. For the most ardent of racing fans, standing by the paddock will be like walking onto the set of Ocean's 13 (what? You don't think Pletcher could make a runner out of Elliot Gould?). You have your Clooney in the scintilating #7 Magna Graduate. Not only did he save his best stuff for his middle-racing-age-years, but his back-to-back 106 Beyer's against stout competition, suggest he's poised for steady stream of blockbusters. And we all know how much Clooney loves to pretend he was, indeed, a Magna Graduate, even though I don't even think that's even in the lexicon of Northern Kentucky University. #2 Papi Chullo, a late-blooming Cadillac, was the equivalent of a quarterback getting drafted first by an awful team and being shoved under center from day 1. Or, the way Don Cheadle had to do "Meteor Man" before he got "Hotel Rwanda." He landed in Gary Contessa's barn early this year, and culminated his resurgence with a sublime (110 Beyer) effort in the Birdstone S on Belmont Day against a solid field. IEAH just bought-in for a slice, and they certainly don't miss much. #1 Flashy Bull was more than stellar in the Stephen Foster, running down Magna Graduate with relative ease, en route to his 4th win in a row. Those Holy Bull's are runners now; consistent and handsome, like a Matt Damon. There's nothing to suggest he won't be there at the end, ah, except for that post position. His freshness concerns me as well. At the age of 5 and out with a typically career-ending injury, to see #3 Brass Hat back among the elite is miraculous. Just when you though his "Scarface" days had been replaced by "Two for the Money" antics, he comes out and sets a track record in a solid allowance a few weeks back at Churchill. But I can't see him being ready for this group quite yet. I'm going with #11 Lawyer Ron, and his Pitt-like sex-appeal. Let's not forget how dominant this colt was as a 3-year-old, before a nightmare trip in the Derby pretty much took it out of him for the rest of the year. Hey, "Babel" sucked, but we learn to forgive. He's since moved onto the Midas straw of the Pletcher barn, and hasn't missed the money yet in 07. So he's missed for all of it of late, but looks sharper each time out, and I expect to see even more improvement today. I like his tactical speed, his recent works, and that juicy 6-1 ML. Ok, I love it. There, I said it.

Ticket:
7: 6
8: 5
9: 1,4
10: 11

Yes, bears do

Occasionally, a question will be thrown your direction, the content of which is so self-evident, that it warrants the counter-query we all learned in grade school: "Does a bear shit in the woods?" Such was the case a couple of months back while taking in an afternoon of 10 cent returns and 5 dollar beers with a few buddies at Six Flags over Churchill Downs. After watching a Patrick Biancone trained-Coolmore owned-Leparoux steered-filly scorch the track in a half of a cigarette (Biancone time), my friend asked me if I thought Biancone was, as he so elequently stated, "juicin' these girls?" Bears moving bows in their natural habitat is not my favorite quip, as its legendary status has lead to gross overuse But Biancone's reputation for dirty tactics was the worst kept secret in the Bluegrass and beyond. So when Biancone's garrison of barns were siezed by the KHRA last week at Keeneland, the only person surprised was probably Biancone himself, that it took this long.

Nevertheless, kudos to the KHRA and Keeneland for taking a stand. The fact that a singular governing body still eludes thoroughbred racing in these United States is a separate rant unto itself, but the porousness of the current set-up is rife with loopholing horsemen, giggling in line at the bank with but a small welt on the wrist. My heart bleeds for Steve Asmussen when he gets a $2,500 fine for positive tests after his stable has made off with millions in winnings. Not to single out The Frenchy and The Ass Man (sitcom?), but one only had to look at Biancone's lengthy track record. Run out of Eurpoe, banned in Hong Kong, and now a major hiccup in Kentucky. The word from the Keeneland backside is that there's more than enough evidence to expel Biancone from the Commonwealth, which is a serious death blow to anyone in this business. Now it's up to the KHRA to pull the trigger and send a message to the super-stables that you'd better leave your snake venom on the reservation, the cocaine in the limo, the EPO in the...well, you get the idea.

Just look around. Turn on the TV, browse the web. Cheating is in. From Armstrong, to Landis, Sosa to Bonds, the media is feeding us truck loads of accusations and consumers are eating it up and asking for seconds. If the smoke ever settles around baseball I fear that the cannons will be pointed toward horse racing, an onslaught I doubt the sport's fragile legs withstand. Horsemen and gamblers aside, racing fans are turned on to the purity of the sport; the unfettered grace of a horse as it gives its all doing the only thing it knows how. When you jeopardize integrity, you stand to lose it all. Hopefully, the only losers in all of this will be the ones winning the wrong way.

We're waiting....

Another year, another foiled Triple Crown. With the talent that has conquered the Derby over the years, I'm beginning to think Affirmed's successful Trinity in '78 is safe for the long haul. Not to ignore the splendor of animals like Alysheba, Sunday Silence, and Thunder Gulch, but just in the past few years the sweet taste of Triple Crown has been crudely purged from our mouths--as it was on Saturday with Curlin's remarkable stride past Street Sense.

First, it was the dangerously athletic and substantially lucrative Fusaichi Pegasus, who came into the Triple Crown in 2000 with more hype than a new Star Wars installment. After gassing the Derby field he came up short in the Preakness to a fresh Red Bullet. War Emblem? Close, but no cigar...or in his case, no flesh cigar. Not many people gave the sack-less Funny Cide much of a chance in '03, but perhaps a rough rail trip through the ankle deep mud at Belmont is all that hindered history that year...well, that and the fact that Empire Maker was a beast when he wanted to be. Smarty Jones? Oh, what should have been. I will continue to tell myself that Barbaro had the necessary ingredients to sweep the Crown, but I guess Billy Joel was right.

Fu-Peg. Smarty Jones. Barbaro. Street Sense. Hell, even Afleet Alex and Curlin. All superstars, and yet we still wait. There are those who say that the industry needs another TC champion. I believe those cries are mostly from the outside looking in, for the annual anticipation of another Affirmed-like feat keeps the masses tuning in each year. And then there's the gambling, which isn't going anywhere, and if certain Gubernatorial elections play out as expected, will only be expanding. No, I believe horse racing is good to go for the forseeable future, although I do worry about the drugs. Let's face it, trainers and owners will continue to cheat, or loophole, however you choose to paint it, and as soon as the media is through with baseball and Lance Armstrong,I fear they may leech onto horse racing "like flies on a ribroast."

Rest easy Affirmed. (pours his Natty light to the ground)

Pre Preakness Preview

Winning Derby jockey Calvin Borel traded rubbing hooves for rubbing elbows at the White House, trainer Carl Nafzger thrusted back into the spotlight, and Street Sense became a star. Indeed, the Kentucky Derby, sorry, the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Foods constructs legends, but the Preakness legitimizes them. Each year, the winner on the first Saturday in May trots into Maryland with the hope of becoming the first Triple Crown Champion since Affirmed in '78, and trade their blanket of roses for a smattering of Black Eyed Susans (no, not Dennis Rodman's current girlfriend, the flower). Will we have another Belmont Stakes with a Triple Crown, well, at stake? Let's just hope it goes better than last year.


1. Mint Slewlep—Cute name, wrong event. This colt is this year’s local flavor, but there’s not much here to suggest he can run with this class. He failed to hit the board in his only two previous graded stakes races, and the rail will not do him any favors. Good luck.

2. Xchanger—Impressive win in a stakes at Pimlico in April, this colt appears to be on the upswing. And, he’s the only horse in the field to run on this track, which is nice. The added distance shouldn’t be a problem, but the added talent should. He’ll have to prove he belongs with this group before I waste a Shrute-Buck on him.

3. Circular Quay—It’s obvious that trainer Todd Pletcher is getting sick of this “never won a Triple Crown race” tag, as this colt was entered at the 11th hour. Only in the Derby can a 6th place finish be considered good, but thinking about the all-stars that finished behind him, it is. Throw in the fact that he ran the Derby off an 8 week layoff after winning the Louisiana Derby in March, and that 6th place gets even sexier. As one of the lone closers in the field a grueling pace would be ideal. A definite play at the current odds.

4. Curlin—Making only his 5th career start, Curlin remains somewhat of an uncertainty. His distant 3rd place finish after a rough trip in the Derby prompted many to jump off the bandwagon, but this is not a 20 horse field. He’s still an extremely powerful colt with plenty of speed, and I don’t know how you can leave him off a trifecta ticket. His meager experience is glaring, but so are his results.

5. King of the Roxy—After getting clipped at the wire by Tiago in the Santa Anita Derby, Pletcher immediately pointed this colt for Pimlico. With a month to train for a specific race, there’s really no excuse for him to throw in a dud. He proved he was more than a sprinter at Santa Anita, and he gets the red hot Garrett Gomez in the reigns. More amazing: this colt was purchased for a mere $8,000 as a yearling; a Kia that runs like a Jaguar, not bad.

6. Flying First Class—If there’s one certainty in this race, it’s that this guy will be the pace setter. How fast he’s forced to go remains to be seen. Sometimes, a rabbit is allotted the lead to the extent that he’s able to put it in cruise. If that’s the case, he could be a factor, but there’s just too much other speed in here to think he’ll have much left in the stretch. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is a Preakness master, and his romp in the Derby Trial earlier this month suggests he can go the distance, but is he fresh enough to do it again? Worth a look, but would be a surprise.

7. Hard Spun—Ran his eyeballs out in nearly wiring the Derby field, and with Flying First Class to his inside, should be able to slide right in underneath him. Detractors will say he ran too fast in the Derby to be fresh two weeks later, but this is a classy colt with plenty of leg. With a jockey (Pino) who knows this course as well as Calvin Borel knows Churchill, it’s hard to envision him not being there at the end. Might be exhausted, but might be ready to explode too.

8. Street Sense—Not much needs to be said here: he was the best as a 2yo, and continues to be at 3. His Derby effort was nothing short of astounding, closing from 19th place at the ¼ pole to rout his rivals, maybe breaking a sweat along the way. His recent work late last week shows he’s still in top form, and maybe, just maybe, has room to improve. Scary thought. The hope of the industry rests on his shoulders, and the best part about it, he has no idea.

9. CP West—Lightly raced, but very consistent…and expensive ($425,000 as a yearling). Trainer Nick Zito didn’t come here just for the crab cakes and pageantry, and his robust odds are enticing. He’s 0-2 as a 3 year old, but I think he’s yet to show his best stuff, and Edgar Prado aboard is a plus. If you’re looking for a price to bust up the chalk, this might be it.

My Picks:
1. Street Sense
2. Curlin
3. Hard Spun
4. CP West

Kentucky Derby 133...oh, sorry, the Yum! Foods Kentucky Derby 133

Betting tips:Don’t be turned off by prep non-winners. 3 year olds can show dramatic improvement from week to week, and those who came up short a month ago might be ready to turn the corner. Don’t ignore the dam when looking at bloodlines. Horses out of successful mares tend to do better in the Derby, regardless of Sire. And of course, if the rain holds up, look to see who’s mudda was a mudda. Don’t give a whole lot of merit to post positions, as a quality horse is a quality horse from anywhere on the track. Getting a clean and comfortable trip is more important than where you start from.

1. Sedgefield—Let’s see, a horse who’s yet to race on the dirt gets his first stab at it in the Kentucky Derby…and from the dreaded 1 hole. In short, anything decent here would be a surprise. He has shown consistency, and Leparoux is as good as they come, your average graded turf race, this is not. Good luck.

2. Curlin—Let’s just say Woo blindly picked a good one here in the morning line favorite. This horse has all the makings of a proverbial super-horse (picture him flying through the air in a cape), but will be racing against history here. He’s a perfect 3 for 3 this year, and hasn’t even been sniffed—he’s won his 3 races by a combined 28 lengths. The only problem: those are his only 3 career starts, and as we all know, it’s been 120 years since a horse won the Derby without racing as a 2 year old. As of now, Curlin is an enigma; dominating, but green. How he’ll handle the swarm of 150k drunkards, unyielding competition, and 18 horses to his right remains a mystery. Maybe he is a once-in-a-generationer, but I’ll have to wait one. Note: Curlin is named after the great grandfather of co-owner and Lexington attorney Shirley Allen Cunningham—who if you’ll remember was the Heavy Hitter before Daryl Isaacs even had warning track power.

3. Zanjero—This one intrigues me. At 30-1, my guess is he’ll get some decent play in a lot of exotics and come down a bit. In my opinion, this colt has yet to show us his best stuff, and his steady improvement throughout the year coupled with his solid works over the Churchill track tell me he may be ready to fire a gem. The added distance shouldn’t be much of an issue, and if the pace gets hot, this stretch runner just might drop a bomb. Don’t leave him off too many tickets.

4. Storm in May—It’s hard to put much merit on his 2nd in the Arkansas Derby, seeing as how Curlin was 10 ½ lengths ahead of him. He does have some quickness, but looks to be in over his head here. To add to the uncertainty, he’s blind in his right eye. That’s right, blind, just like in the movies. Gotta love it.

5. Imawildandcrazyguy—Purchased for a mere $17,000 as a yearling, it’s a surprise that he’s been this successful. He appeared to be knocking on the door early this year with a solid effort in the Risen Star, but has taken a step back in his last two starts. I’ll give him some slack for the 6th place in the Florida Derby, as he was almost went to his knees at the start. But there are too many other good prices out there attached to much better horses.

6. Cowtown Cat—I’m hearing from a lot of horsemen that this colt could be a surprise. You can’t knock his pedigree, and you certainly can’t knock his resume. One of five horses from the Pletcher supercenter, the Illinois Derby champ might also have his best effort ahead of him. If he can survive the break and get a clean avenue to the front, he could be tough.

7. Street Sense—You really couldn’t script this colt’s ascent to the Derby any better. He routed fellow rivals in the BC Juvenile as a 2 year old at this very track, took the Tampa Bay Derby in his first start of the year, and was barely nudged at the wire in the Bluegrass last month. His workouts have been flawless, as has his condition. With all his accomplishments, I believe he’s yet to be asked for his all, and his all just might bury this field. Assuming he gets a clean ride, he’ll be the one to beat. Note: Trainer Carl Nafzger returns to the Derby for the first time since 1990, where he saddled the victor, Unbridled. Also, facing long historical odds, as no Juvenile champ has ever won the Roses.

8. Hard Spun—Disposing 5 furlongs in 57:60 as he did last week at Churchill is freakish; but was it too much? This is another mystery horse—consistently dominant, but against lesser competition. His romp in The Lane’s End on the Poly at Turfway was convincing, but trainer Larry Jones decided to buck tradition and hold his horse out for the remainder of the prep season. As peculiar as Jones’s tactics may be, he knows his horses, and is very confident in his colt. That alone makes him hard to rule out, but he’ll have to prove that he belongs.

9. Liquidity—This West Coaster trained by Doug O’Neil is often overlooked in favor of his stable mate, Great Hunter. With odds of 30-1, it’s likely that this trend will continue on Saturday. I’m not saying he’s got what it takes to win, but don’t be surprised to see this Tiznow colt in the thick of things. He’s got some good early speed, and if he can keep up with Trueflesburg in a fairly moderate pace, he could hit the board. His works show he’s in peak form and ready to improve off his 4th place in the Santa Anita Derby. Worth a look.

10. Tueflesburg—Was fortunate in the Blue Grass to be unchallenged for the lead, setting a crawling pace and leaving enough in the tank for a strong 4th place. He’ll be gunning for the lead, so a clean break is essential. The added distance might prove too much, and with Curlin, Stormello, Cowtown Cat, and Liquidity likely to challenge for the lead, he’s not going to have the pleasure of a :50 opening quarter. Note: If you want a Rudy story, here it is. He was purchased for a mere $9,000 as a yearling. Nice return.

11. Bwana Bull—Was giving Great Hunter a run for the West Coast title before a disappointing 5th in the Santa Anita Derby. Anything stellar tomorrow would be a surprise, as he looks more overachiever than champion.

12. Nobizlikeshobiz—Trainer Barclay Tagg is the quintessential horseman: peculiar, conservative, methodical, and reserved; the guy also happens to be damn good at what he does, and as we saw with Funny Cide in 2003, puts his horses in winnable situations. The winner of the Wood Memorial, this colt is the definition of consistency, having never fared worse than 3rd in 6 career starts. His tendency to lose focus seemed rectified by the addition of blinkers in the Wood, and he has a pretty good position here to get out and stalk the pace. The only real knock is he hasn’t sown blazing speed en route to his past wins, but his workout show me he’s capable of a spurt. Factor him in.

13. Sam P.—This appears to be a stretch…solid 2 year old campaign, but has yet to find the winner’s circle at 3. It’s difficult to envision a Derby champ with a 2 and 8 lifetime record.

14. Scat Daddy—Florida champ has done everything asked of him this year, winning his two major preps in the sunshine state. Has never run a bad race in his life, and Pletcher has been aiming him here since day 1. Still, Street Sense beat him by some 15 lengths at this track last year. I think he’s definitely got the stuff to win, but he’ll need a perfect trip. I like him if the price is right.

15. Tiago—Much like his half-brother Giacomo, the added distance shouldn’t affect this stretch running longshot winner of the Santa Anita Derby. A hot pace would play right into his hooves, and out of all the stretch bombers, he might have the strongest kick. He’s very green, however, and has never raced outside of SA. If he gets a fast pace, and an alley, it could be déjà vu from 2005. Note: Owned by Jerry Moss, who also owns A&M records, and is named for the son of Brazilian singing sensation (or so I’m told) Sergio Mendes. If you’ll remember, Giacomo was named in honor of Sting’s son. Precious.

16. Circular Quay—A lot to like with this improving colt and Louisiana Derby champ. Ran second to Street Sense on this track in the BC last year. Will be coming off a fairly long layoff, which normally could be a positive, but in a 20 horse field, maybe too much to ask. Not sure if he can rate at 1 ¼.

17. Stormello—Jockey Kent Desormeaux is a Derby vet, so it surprised me when he all but predicted a victory earlier this week. Nice colt, yes, but he getting the lead from the 17 post will require a lot of early horse. I think he has the stamina, as evidenced as his sizzling 2nd place effort and 112 Beyer in the Fountain of Youth attested, but I’m wary of a speed duel. Everything has to go right.

18. Any Given Saturday—Easily the best name, so that’s worth at least a $5 bet. Much like Stormello, his post position doesn’t favor his front running style, and these two could cancel each other out early. Was nosed out by Street Sense in the Tampa Derby, but earned a sexy 114 Beyer fig for his effort. Some might be turned off by his 3rd place in the Wood, but he was wide on both turns and lost some ground. Impeccable bloodline, and winning connections (Pletcher-Gomez has been on fire of late), and barring a torrid opening quarter, could be a serious factor. Very attractive, especially with a good price. This just might be that Saturday.

19. Dominican—This gelding had to have the Blue Grass Stakes to get in, and came through with an impressive late spurt to nip Street Sense at the line. However, the tortoise pace might have been his saving grace, and he’s shown spotty success when not on the cushion. His bullet work at Chruchill shows that he may be peaking at the right time, and could be poised for another dynamite effort. Bejarano is a master, and should never be written off. Can’t ignore his recent form, and his extreme outside post shouldn’t pose too much of a problem. Note: calls Springfield, Ky home, owned by the Hamilton family. He’s named after the Saints, and not the Country, so divine intervention may be in store.

20. Great Hunter—The West Coast champ disappointed in the Blue Grass where he was knocked around in the stretch. The post position looks ominous, but it might not be a problem if he can seamlessly position himself off the pace early, and not get caught too wide in the first turn. If he has sitting with a full tank in the turn for home, look out. By far the best bargain at 15-1, and it might not come down too far if bettors are turned off by the post position. Very capable.

My Picks: 1. Street Sense 2. Curlin 3. Dominican 4. Tiago

Kentucky Derby 133: The Oaks

The Kentucky Oaks, the "Desperate Housewives" of horse races, goes off today with promises of a Queen, rain, rain, and more rain. Yet another element that only compilcates this thing we call handicapping. The favorite, #11 Rags to Riches, has all but dismantled the best 3 year old fillies on the curcuit all season, going a perfect 3 for 3 this year. This Todd Pletchter trained filly will look to stalk the pace, and assuming the mud isn't a problem, could walk home. But don't overlook stable mate #4 Octave. The Unbridled's Song filly came up a nose short in Keeneland's Ashland Stakes, but she's been strong in recent workouts, showing no ill effects from the loss. Don't count out #7 Dreaming of Anna. The BC JF champ has faltered in her only 2 starts of the year, but you have to think she's going to pick up a quality win at some point...recent works show this might be it.

To commemorate this year's Oaks, here's" a post I composed last year detailing my run in with Football legend and double murderer OJ Simpson at last year's Oaks. Enjoy, and check out the site later today as I'll have a breakdown of all 20 horses for tomorrow's Derby.

Mutuel Recap: Dominican Order

As the near freezing April rain tried valiantly to dampen spirits (and buzzes), the driest place at Keeneland yesterday was the track itself. Indeed, the Polytrack held up its end of the bargain, and so too did the world class thoroughbreds who braved the adverse conditions to make for an electrifying day in Lexington.

The highlights:

I had the 4^th race ($66,000 Allowance 4+) circled as soon as the field was announced, for one of my all-time favorites, the resilient Perfect Drift, was on board. The well-traveled and extremely lucrative 8 year old colt hadn’t raced since his 8^th place finish in the Breeder’s Cup Classic back in November, and trainer Murray Johnson obviously wanted to get his horse a solid work before taking on Churchill. Perfect Drift went off as the favorite, but was simply no match for the winner Stream Cat, who left PD in the dust with a very impressive kick on the stretch. Chalk up another dubya for the can’t-miss Frenchy duo of Biancone/Leparoux. The fact that Stream Cat is co-owned by former Dukie Bobby Hurley only compounded my disappointment, but this colt will be tough to beat on the weeds this year.

Race 6, the Jenny Wiley Stakes (G3) was short on numbers (6 entrants) but tall in talent. In a showcase of Breeder’s Cup tested fillies and mares 4+, the Todd Pletcher trained Wait a While figured to be a lock, but it was obvious from the get-go that she simply wasn’t in the mood to run. Women. However, even if she was, I’m not sure she could’ve run down the #4 My Typhoon, who edged Bejarano and Precious Kitten for the win. The Bill Mott trained filly reiterated the notion that the Poly plays truer to grassers than it does mudders, and looks like a serious BC contenda this fall.

The 8^th, The Commonwealth Breeders’ Cup (G2), bore proof that we might’ve taught the Japanese a little too much after WWII. The Far-East bred Silent Name (Sunday Silence) routed an accomplished field of sprinters to get back on the winning path. Trainer Gary Mandella has to feel extremely confident in his colt after yesterday. A solid effort also from the one time all-star turned longshot Lewis Michael who showed some kick in getting up for 2^nd, and an equally disappointing effort out of Baffert’s Midnight Lute, who never threatened en route to a 4^th place finish.

Then, of course, there was the preppiest of preps, the Blue Grass Stakes (G1). Featuring the two most impressive 3yo thus far, Street Sense and Great Hunter, many were mistakenly quick to write this off as a duel. 1:51.33 later, as four heads reached the finish line at nearly the same instance, this supposed “match race” had a winner: 10-1 shot Dominican. With Bejarano once again waving his whip as if it were a magic wand, the winner of the Rushaway Stakes clipped even money favorite Street Sense and fellow “afterthought” Zanjero at the line, stamping his ticket to Churchill. The Blue Grass played like a turf race, with lone speeder Truflesberg setting an unfettered snails pace with a 26 + change opening quarter. With a near 2 ½ length lead and plenty left in the tank, I wondered if anyone would catch this resolute son of Johannesburg. Street Sense appeared to be poised for yet another photo-op at the top of the stretch, but was unable to separate from a game Truflesberg and a charging Zanjero. It was obvious that rider Calvin Borel was fighting to keep his horse aligned and focused. Great Hunter suffered through a stretch run from hell, twice getting sandwiched between SS and Tberg, and ultimately having to slam on the breaks before the wire. Bejarano timed his run perfectly, as a stretched out Dominican rallied hard from the outside to nip the others at the wire. Although the connections of Street Sense would’ve happily accepted the $750,000 purse, I’d say they still feel awfully good about their colt heading into May’s first Saturday. I don’t believe he was pushed to his max yesterday, but still showed plenty of mettle. Likewise with Great Hunter. I don’t think he was going to make a winning push, but he certainly could’ve done more with a cleaner trip. Hopefully, he came out sound, and I still think they’re the two to beat (along with Ark. Champ Curlin) at Churchill.

Lessons learned:
No turf? No problem...Street Sense and Great Hunter are still tough, but mortal...Sunday Silence has good seed, in case you forgot...Gomez and Leparoux aside, this is Bejarano's house...Curlin, very fast...April weather, f-you...

Mutuel Musings 4/14

Race 1

I like the #9 Cointreau. He’s been running on the weeds for most of his career, but did romp in a $25,000 claimer on the Keeneland Polytrack last October. He’s been very consistent against similar competition all year, and with Bejarano up, you know he’ll at least get the chance to make a run. Not far behind is the #2 Skippy Due, who has done no worse than 2nd in his last 6 career starts. Locally trained by Phil Sims (no, not the one with the girly sons), he’s very adept on the Poly. Takes a minor step-up in class this trip, but his consistency is too strong to overlook. If you’re looking for a price, take the #3 Sweet Grass Creek.


Race 3

Darley, and their lovable owner Sheikh Mohammed Al Something or Other, couple two talented 3yo’s in #1 Sahara Heat and #1a No Reply. Both horses are impeccably bred and look to be poised to make a move here. You’re getting a 2fer here, so that’s good, but the even money morning line isn’t. #5 Highest Degree finished 7th in the G2 Lane’s End at Turfway his last time out, and this dramatic step down in class might be enough to get him the winner’s circle. Still, at 2-1 I’d be hesitant to play. There’s not much else here, but put the #1 and #2 over a longshot in a tri-box and hope for the best.


Race 4

#5 Pulpit Talk has been wildly inconsistent of late, but his bullet work last week shows he’s ready to improve in his second start off a layoff. I would be remiss if I didn’t make a push for Perfect Drift, who at the age of 8 is the statesmen of this bunch, and is one of my all-time favorites. He’s a no-nonsense colt with enough career earnings to buy his own private horse jet...which is cool in theory, and he’s been running against the best in the world his whole career. Dropping down to an allowance is peculiar (think Celtics Bill Walton), especially one on the grass, but he’s still the one to beat.


Race 6-Jenny Wiley Stakes

Like the theater in Prestonsburg which bears her name, the Jenny Wiley Stakes is playing host to the best fillies and mares in the world. With only six horses to choose from, a good price might be hard to come by. #2 Wait a While trots out of the Pletcher barn with ace jock Garett Gomez at the reigns. She’s one of the fastest mares in the world, and a clean trip would prove disastrous for the others. If the #2 doesn’t happen to feel like running, then another even money lass, #4 My Typhoon will be there to strike. Trained by the King of Turf Bill Mott, she should be ready in her 2nd start from a layoff. #5 Mauralakana is another Biancone/Leparoux combo, with plenty of experience against similar competition. She hasn’t raced since finishing 7th at the Breeder’s Cup last year, and this might be too tough a test coming off that long of a vacation.


Race 8-Commonwealth Breeder's Cup

Like the Jenny Wiley, the Commonwealth Breeder’s Cup will showcase a plethora of Breeder’s Cup quality colts in the Sprint division. I’m going with the #8 Silent Name. This Japanese bred out of Sunday Silence runs like a Toyota--smooth, quiet, and quick. He's been tested against graded competition most of his career, and I think his connections should feel awfully good about this. Look for him to get the lead, and 'Polytrack' his way to a w2w. Standing in his way is the #7 Midnight Lute, outta the Baffert barn, and the #4 Street Light. Longshot: #10 Gin and Sin. Come on, you know you like the name, just bet it.

Race 9-Toyota Bluegrass Stakes

1- Zanjero—a lethal combo of Asmussen and Gomez makes him sexy enough on paper, but this colt can run. He’s won on this course, and the simple fact of the matter is, he’s yet to run his best race. Might this be it?
2- Dominican—Plenty to like here: coming off an impressive triumph in Turfway’s Rushaway Stakes last month on the same surface, earning a 109 Beyer speed figure. But this is a step-up in class, one that may prove to be too much.
3- Love Dubai—If betting on who finished last were playable, then this would be a sure thing. The justification for this horse to be in this race is just not there.
4- Street Sense—I’ve been hailing him as the 3yo champ all year for one simple reason: the reigning 2yo champ is 1 for 1 as a 3yo. While there is very little to not like here, his 4-5 ML kills any excitement. As dominant as this colt has been throughout his career, trainer Carl Nafzger believes he’s yet to run his best race…will be shocked if he doesn’t hit the board.
5- Time Squared—Gets a nod for bloodline (Fusaichi Pegasus) and connections (Biancone), and has some really nice works of late. Taking a monstrous step up in class, and his only previous attempt at a graded stakes yielded an uninspiring 7th place finish. If the pace is hot early on, he could come on late and hit the board, but I’d look elsewhere.
6- Teuflesberg—Has found the board in each of his last 5 races, including 3rd in the Rebel Stakes last month. Prado aboard is a huge plus. Should be unmatched on the lead, and if the fractions are slow, he could just wire this field. Very capable of big things, but this big…not so sure. Is a player, but I would only play him in the exotics if his price is decent.
7- Great Hunter—If there’s anyone who can rival Street Sense in class, it’s this west coaster. This colt can do it all, and looks to be moving into top form at exactly the right time. He’s been facing the best of the best his whole career, and hasn’t faired any worse than 3rd. Put him on top with #4 in any exotics.
If I were a bettin man: tri-box 1, 4, 7