What other sporting event could comprise the likes of a 75 year old retired principal, the ruler of Dubai, Jenny Craig, and a high rollin' Wall Street hedge fund? These are but a handful of the owners with a stake in this year's Kentucky Derby, which the compulsively cerebral Broseph and I have dissected below. Once again, it looks like a strong chance the track will be soupy, closely resembling the overflow from infield porta-pottys. Remember, in these economic times of woe, you might as well bet all you have left. Trust us...
(1) West Side Bernie (Elliot/Breen; 30-1) Death Row Stables colt had Solid 2yo campaign, has been spotty in his 3 starts this year. Nice 2nd in The Wood, though I Want Revenge cooked him in the stretch after fighting through a hellacious trip. Wouldn’t be shocked if he got up for a taste if the pace is hot, and worth a shout out or two in the exotics at these odds. -Intern
(2) Musket Man (Coa / Ryan; 20-1) The big reason to like this horse is that he is the winner of the very underrated Illinois Derby (which produced the last wire-to-wire winner of the Derby, War Emblem). Last year, Recapturetheglory gave the Illinois prep some cred by running fifth at huge odds. The one thing that scares me about this horse is the pilot. Never been a real big fan of Eibar Coa, and the rail spot means he’ll need to hustle it up early or wait back and circle the huge field to get any sort of trip. -Broseph
(3) Mr. Hot Stuff (Velasquez / Harty; 30-1) Maybe I missed something here, but Johnny V has been riding for Pletcher since Shep was a pup, and now he jumps on with Eoin (pronounced Owen…don’t ask me) Harty. This could be nothing, or it could signify Velasquez’s interest in a live runner. Still, don’t think he has much chance with only one victory, that being against maidens, in his lifetime. With a name like his, I have no idea why his silks aren’t hot pink. -B
(4) Advice (Douglas/Pletcher; 30-1) Came from the clouds to nab the Lexington S, but has done little else against much weaker foes than he'll face here. Chanceless. -I
(5) Hold Me Back (Desormeaux/ Mott; 15-1) Stellar on the polytrack, evidenced by his roll in the Lanes End and commendable 2nd in the Blue Grass. Alas, a complete question mark on the dirt, let alone slop, but the aptly named colt is another stretch runner with plenty of wind and a Derby vet on board. He'll have to prove he can handle the track before getting a second look. -I
(6) Friesan Fire (Saez / Jones; 5-1) The pick. You only had to watch his victory in the Louisiana Derby to see the talent in this guy. Never needed to be asked for too much, handled the wet surface beautifully, and pulled away running straight as an arrow to win by more than 7 lengths. The knock against him is the ‘foundation’ he lacks by not running a mile-and-an-eighth, but I trust Larry Jones and remember that everyone said Barbaro was too lightly raced before his Derby victory. Not to mention that he was seven lengths better than Papa Clem last time out. -B
(7) Papa Clem (Bejerano / Stute; 20-1) Probably one of the better 20-1 shots in the Derby in a long time, Papa Clem comes off of a big win against then-favorite Old Fashioned in the Arkansas Derby. Naysayers will cry foul, saying that Old Fashioned was already injured at that point, but it’s still hard to knock a guy who has finished second to both PioneeroftheNile and Friesan Fire. Evan’s betting favorite because Beje is aboard. -B
(8) Mine That Bird (Borel, Woolley; 50-1) The white guy in this marathon, does not show he belongs from any angle. Last. -I
(9) Join in the Dance (Decarlo / Pletcher; 50-1) Not gonna lie, never heard of this jockey, but the trainer has been around a while. One of the better stories in this Derby is that this guy’s part-owner is Orlando’s Rashad Lewis (who has scored over 13,000 points…is that right?). He has also only won against maidens once, but he ran a tight second to Musket Man in the Tampa Bay Derby, so if you like MM, you probably think this guy can’t be too far behind, but pretty sure this guy will find the dance floor too crowded. -B
(10) Regal Ransom (Garcia, bin Suroor; 30-1) This is where it gets interesting. One of a pair from Dubai's Goldophin Stable, scored a nice upset win over neighbor Desert Party in the UAE Derby. Figures to right in behind the #9 at the top of the pace, but could just as easily get cooked in the opening half. I like him on an off track with breathable fractions, but it's hard to side with the Dubai contingency until they prove they belong in the Triple Crown. -I
(11) Chocolate Candy (Smith / Hollendorfer; 20-1) If you’re looking for a longshot with an angle, this is your horse. He has yet to run on the conventional dirt, but many say that his lineage is built for the surface, so he could take a huge step forward. He has lost only twice in six starts (both to PioneeroftheNile), so even though he may not catch him, he can hang with the rest. The drawback to his parentage is that a mile-and-a-quarter may not be to his liking, which is unfortunate, because that’s how long this race is. -B
(12) General Quarters (Leparoux / McCarthy; 20-1) He’s got a great post position, and there’s no better jockey for this oval, but I am staying away from this guy. Put me in the camp that thinks his best is back in Lexington. Plus, the Bluegrass winner in 2008, Monba, beat zero horses in the Derby last year, so I wouldn’t call that a ringing endorsement. Yeah, yeah…the trainer is a confused, old high school teacher with only one horse, but save that crap for Hollywood. I’ll wait for it to come out on DVD. -B
(13) I Want Revenge (Talamo/ Mullins; 3-1) Has everything you'd expect from an eventual Derby champ: successive wins and 100+ Beyers since moving from Poly to the dirt, and versatile speed. Couldn't catch Pioneer of the Nile out west, but the potential for even more improvement is there. Literally gave the field a 3 second head start in the Wood, and romped anyway. Talamo is an emerging star, but just dipping his short, stubby toes into the shallow end in his first Derby mount. Expect him to rate just off the pace, and we'll see what he's made of in the final quarter. Clean trip, or no clean trip, should be a major factor. -I
(14) Atomic Rain (Bravo/ Breen; 50-1) One career win came in a maiden at 5f...improving colt has looked sharp over the CD track, but he's running against a lot more than the stopwatch here. I'd save my longshot ticket for others. -I
(15) Dunkirk (Prado/ Pletcher; 4-1) Without a doubt, the most intriguing colt in the field. Some are hailing this $3.7 million dollar purchase as the next Superhorse, but with only 3 career starts, remains a complete enigma. Unraced at 2, which has not been a successful Derby path since 1882, you have to think his best is still well in front of him. Ran a huge 2nd in the Fla Derby, considering it was his first go-round at the graded level, only his 3rd lifetime start, and he yielded to who many believe is the top 3yo, Quality Road. His works scream that he's as live as anyone else, and his regal bloodline and flashy connections cannot be ignored. Should be in the crowded middle of the pack real estate, and will have his chance to show us if he's ready for this stage. If you are willing to overlook history, and take a chance on potential, here he is. -I
(16) PioneeroftheNile (Gomez / Baffert; 4-1) There was no more successful jockey last year than G-squared, and if you watched the ‘Jockeys’ episode with him making a cameo, all I can say is prima donna, which makes him fit right in with the trainer. Still, as much as it pains me to say it, this could be the best of the bunch. He doesn’t win by much, but he has yet to lose, and that includes a battle against morning-line favorite, I Want Revenge. The one knock is the surface switch, since it seems as if the entire state of California is covered in some form of Polytrack. But, to speak to my audience here, if horses were ranked in the RPI, this one’s SOS would be #1. -B
(17) Summer Bird (Rosier/ Ice; 50-1) Makes 4th career start after cleaning up a spent field for 2nd in the Ark Derby. Like Dunkirk, he was unraced at 2 and shows promise, but unlike Dunkirk, he's simply not classy enough for this bunch. Seriously, huge ass. -I
(18) Nowhere to Hide (Bridgmohan / Zito; 50-1) This horse is aptly named, but don’t ever let Tricky Nick fool you. Zito has saddled the last two Belmont heartbreakers (Birdstone, Da Tara), and he always runs out of the odds the betting public puts on him in the big races. Still, there is absolutely zero to like when looking at his past performances: it took him five starts to break his maiden at Calder, that was his only win, he finished fourth in all three of his graded starts this year, and he has exactly 99 dollars more than the minimum $100,000 one would normally need to make the field. Still, Nick Zito is like that guy in the rated-R movie that you’re just not sure about… -B
(19) Desert Party (Dominguez / Suroor; 15-1) Both Dubai horses (Regal Ransom being the other) are all the rage on the backside because of their huge physical presence, and to the paddock watchers, they will be tough to lay off of. I tend to side with this one rather than Ransom, and DP was purchased for over 2 million bucks as a two-year-old. Since he likes to come off the pace, his seemingly poor post position may not be as bad as one would like to believe. Still, he has yet to run on U.S. soil and the Derby isn’t a time to be learning on the job. -B
(20) Flying Private (Albarado/ Lukas; 50-1) Gets the benefit of Lucas and Robby, but that's where it ends. Might be the most capable of the 50-1's, but has shown little to suggest he can outkick the faves. -I
Broseph’s Picks
1.Friesan Fire: looked very professional in his last win; will be fresh
2.I Want Revenge: his Wood victory is the stuff of legends; check Youtube
3.Desert Party: expensive colt who's ready to fire
4.PioneeroftheNile: he’s won ‘em all, just not convincingly
5.Chocolate Candy: these two should run together
Intern
1. Friesan Fire
2. Papa Clem
3. Pioneer of the Nile
4. Desert Party
5. I Want Revenge
